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Which markets are telling us when there are election results



Markets often have political flaws, but rarely see them priced in all three plausible outcomes of a presidential election – Republicans, Democrats, and protracted legal warfare – in one night. Last night brought up exactly that when voters once again mocked the polls.

In a way, the markets did what they should do: When the probability changes, the price reacts in the direction one expects. Effective market!

No, …


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