As a result, in some of the most competitive states, the initial results may look too positive for former Vice President Joe Biden, before returning to earth and becoming more representative of the real outcome. In other states, Trump could see the lead positions soon shrink as more votes are counted.
This is not a sign of fraud or abnormality. Rather, it is just a reflection of how the states count the votes. Some states process ballots early and report them early at night, while others save them for the last time. Below is a breakdown of what to see in critical states.
Some call this a “red illusion” or “blue shift”, in which the results initially favor Trump but subsequent polls even happened and maybe even put Biden up before all the results were checked.
This move is expected in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where they do not process absentee ballots prior to Election Day. The early wave of results will likely come from the votes cast on Election Day and from outside of the state̵
7;s population centers that are believed to favor Trump.
As absentee ballots are counted late on Tuesday night and larger cities report more of their votes, or even following days, statewide ballot count may change towards by Biden.
Experts also believe this will happen in Michigan. A bipartisan deal gave local officials an extra day to process absentee ballots prior to Election Day, which helped but not enough time to ensure tight counting on election night. State officials have warned that it will take days.
Similarly, in Minnesota, there could be a misleading “red illusion” like a Trump lead. Minnesota is one of the closest states Trump lost in 2016 and he hopes to topple it this year, even though he is lagging behind in polls.
Can change from blue to red
Some people call this a “blue illusion” or “red shift”. This was when the first wave of results disproportionately supported Biden, followed only by more Trump-friendly votes after that. This is most likely in states that began processing weekly mail ballots before Election Day.
The most important states that experts believe this will happen are Florida and North Carolina. Election officials in these states said the first publicly available results after the end of the vote would be large absentee ballots and direct early voting, which are favorable for the Democrats. master. As the night drags on, the votes on Election Day will drip, helping Trump’s profits.
This dynamic is also expected in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, largely for similar reasons. They will quickly post results from the voting history levels prior to Election Day, which might help Biden.
It’s also likely to happen in Nevada, which is doing things differently this year as well. Nevada automatically sends ballots to all registered voters, although direct voting is still an option.
The situation is not clear or there is no expected change
The situation is even worse in several other important states.
In Georgia, some counties will report a large number of quick absentee ballots after the ballots end, but not immediately. It’s not exactly clear how this will happen on election night
Arizona has seen drastic post-election changes in its 2018 Senate race. Officials have taken steps to avoid that this year, and the numbers are expected to be faster. There may be less delay between the published results from absentee ballots and Election Day ballots, reducing the risk of “mirage”.
Additionally, in New Hampshire and Maine, local officials will combine the absentee ballots and Election Day ballots before the results are announced, eliminating any “change”. These states supported Biden, but there was a tight race to win an electoral vote in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Stephanie Becker, Aaron Cooper, Annie Grayer, Sarah Jorgensen, Caroline Kenny, Ashley Killough, Pamela Kirkland, Adam Levy, Katie Lobosco, Jason Morris, Sara Murray, Bob Ortega, Leslie Perrot, Taylor Romine, Devon Sayers and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report.