(Reuters) – US stock markets spiked on Wednesday in Asia as voting predictions in the revolving US presidential election showed lower odds for a Joe Biden sweep, a Race is close and may be a long awaited result.
Investors were hoping to avoid a lengthy process that could delay any stimulus to help an economy reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 () were up 1.65% in volatile trading.
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Signs that President Donald Trump could win in Florida have lowered expectations for a quick result and have seen 10-year Treasury yields drop to 0.84% () from their peaks. 5 months is 0.93%.
The US dollar rose 0.7% on a basket of currencies to 94.20 ().
BRIAN BETHUNE, ECONOMIST, ALPHA ECONOMIC FORESIGHTS LLC, BOSTON
“It’s still early. It’s a bit tighter than most people would expect. When the map fills up, you can easily see a 10-20 basis point fluctuation on the Department’s 10-year bond. Finance United States.
“If Republicans control the Senate, they don’t care much about a big stimulus. The market really prefers the stalemate. It keeps things from tilting one way or the other, whether it be. spending or taxes Here’s the problem: the market would rather have a predictable environment for taxes and trade, rather than not knowing what tariffs will hit them in the next six months. ‘predictable’ would be to continue the current regime, or let the Senate see a lot of the benefits of Democrats but Trump’s White House. “
MAX GOKHMAN, HEAD OF ASSET DISTRIBUTION, PERSONAL FUND ADVISOR PACIFIC, NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA
“It’s very important not to extrapolate too much from these first numbers. While Biden could lose Florida, he could win Texas where the polls just ended. And that would yield a lot of votes. Electoral College is over and is a much greater sadness This will be the best wild night and possibly 48 wild hours.
“The market’s impact will be quite volatile. The irony is that because some investors, including us, have turned to more neutral positions, any move could be amplified. and making conditions much more volatile. The question is whether it will happen to Pennsylvania and Ohio. I’m going to stay up for hours and think sleep is what I’m going to have on Thursday. “
MATT SHERWOOD, INVESTOR, PERPETUAL, SYDNEY INVESTMENT STRATEGY
“Right now, there is no definitive conclusion but that it looks like Trump won in Florida, and thus that opens the way to victory for him and it all goes down to the Midwest. .
“It’s a wait and see. I’m not going to flip a portfolio or make an asset allocation decision based on the partial outcome of the state. You will just have to sit back and wait for real results.” disclosure.
“I think the likelihood of being wiped out is declining, almost every minute. That reduces the likelihood, or at least, of a major stimulus program being approved in the early days of the Biden administration.”
LEI WANG, PORTUGAL MANAGEMENT, INVESTMENT MANAGER THORNBURG
“Voting results – or lack of results – will not drive any major changes to our holdings across areas or geographic areas.
“In fact, an unspecified outcome or a controversial electoral scenario is likely to add a short-term risk premium, causing risk-free behaviors and increased volatility. dust settles … the market will return to long-term focus.- the short-term effects of winner policies, many of which we can review and price throughout campaign. “
TONY ROTH, HEAD OF INVESTMENT, WILMINGTON TRUST INVESTMENT, PENNSYLVANIA
“Unless Biden can hang on to Ohio tonight or potentially North Carolina, where it looks like a very fuzzy outlook right now, at a rate where the president seems to be catching up, it looks like we won’t know the results of the election. at some point the market will be hard to digest … We think Biden has a huge chance of winning, but I think those opportunities are dwindling. “
TIM GHRISKEY, INVESTMENT STRATEGY BECOME, INVERNESS COUNSEL, NEW YORK
“Again, it looks like the poll participants were wrong. The states expected to participate are still going. If it was the Trump administration, it would be the same, could be emphasized, by for he has nothing to fear. The Cold War with China will get worse, the lack of support from states and local governments will get worse. will be reduced and will not be supported by many people.
“If it was Trump, you wouldn’t see a big package. There’s a risk of the virus spreading and that’s not good for the economy. Regardless of who gets elected, we will still have vaccines. Big technology will be. may protest if Trump is re-elected for lack of regulation and efforts to break them up. “
DAVID R. KOTOK, CHAIRMAN AND CIO, ADVISOR CUMBERLAND, FLORIDA
“The market wants a decisive green wave and to do so it takes Florida soon. Markets are dropping the big green wave so futures turn red.
“During the sell-off last week, we raised our allocation (for US stocks). We took advantage of the sell-off and could see that the sell-off reached a climax. in psychology … and so far that’s a good deal.
“I believe that when you remove uncertainty in a political race like this, removing uncertainty means the market goes up and I believe we have a premium. Definitely very high, this was reflected in last week.
“My biggest worry is the backlash in the country and the elongation of the decision. We went through one of those things 20 years ago. Part of people’s mindset is the marketing agency. The school was ready for that. What they weren’t prepared was Civil Unrest turned into apparent violence. That was my biggest fear. ”
YUICHI MURAO, SENIOR INVESTMENT OFFICE, NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO
“The markets seem to have priced in Biden’s win to some degree, which is why we see better environmental stocks and relative technology and energy stocks. The market is worried about the increase in corporate taxes.
“In case Trump wins, there will be policy continuity, which means there isn’t much of a negative impact on corporate earnings but smaller fiscal stimulus than what the Biden government is likely to offer.
THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN, EXCELLENT CAPITAL, NEW YORK
“I think the market comes with strong expectations for a green wave and now they have to look at the status quo. If Trump wins, the rate of business will stay the same, which is the biggest problem for the market. securities where it could lose up to $ 20 in S&P income if tax rates rise.
“The best case would be a stalemate, for Biden or Trump’s presidency. I think the market is re-pricing its assumptions. If you don’t have the green wave, you get a little stimulus. than.”
SIMON WESTON, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGITY VCSVN, AXA INVESTMENT MANAGER, HONG KONG
“The markets entering the election look like they’re expecting a ‘green wave’ or at least a convincing win for Biden.
“However, the count so far shows that the outcome will be much closer to this level, with the key state of Florida looking like it will be for Trump. This raises the outlook that we could get away with. a disputed election, or at least one where we won’t get results for a while because votes take time to count.
“This higher uncertainty has seen a lot of these initial trades reverse – with the dollar bullish and market sell-off at the open high … this caution is likely to continue. until and unless we get a clearer indication of the outcome. “
JAKE DOLLARHIDE, OFFICER, LONG-TERM ASSET MANAGER, TULSA, OKLAHOMA
“The blue sweep argument is about immediate stimulus, like a high sugar level. Trump does better than investors think is the ultimate chaos. If you expect a blue and sudden sweep. Trump looks competitive and looks like he can win, then you should be cautious If Republicans start regaining Senate seats and you get stuck, the market could go down. You may result in tax reductions and higher stock prices as rebound trading resumes.
“S&P futures are in favor of the high line, the green sweep is very good. The market is thinking in the short term. The market favors certainty and Trump seems to do better than investors do. think not for sure. “