President Trump gave gross domestic product growth in the most recent quarter as evidence that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic is shifting to a corner led by his administration, despite the indicators. Another shows that many Americans continue to suffer financial stress.
The Commerce Department on Thursday provided the last major quantitative snapshot of the economy ahead of the presidential election just five days away, and said the economy was growing at a record 33.1% rate. annually in the third quarter. The United States has recovered somewhat of its pandemic-related economic losses but is still below the 2019 ending level.
Mr. Trump, who has outpaced Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in numerous battlefield polls – is tracking a book used by other incumbent presidents facing the fray. difficult re-election. In 1992, for example, President George HW Bush tried to convince voters at the end of that campaign that the economy was turning around after a recession. Voters elected Bill Clinton instead.
As for Mr. Trump, the bet is that voters won’t blame him for the stress the coronavirus has caused the economy, which has seen consistent growth under his watch before. pandemic. He also warned that the Biden administration would bring a “serious recession”. Voters have consistently viewed Mr. Trump as the best candidate to govern the economy, the Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll of the year showed. In a survey in early October, Trump was ahead of Mr. Biden on the 7 percentage point question.
“GDP figures just announced. The biggest and best in the history of our country, and not even close. Next year will be FANTASTIC !!! Mr Trump tweeted on Thursday morning, saying Mr. Biden’s proposed tax increase on the rich would slow down growth. “Glad that this amazing GDP figure was released before November 3,” the president tweeted.
Larry Kudlow, the White House’s top economic adviser, in a campaign call with reporters on Thursday said Mr Biden would jeopardize that growth with plans to raise taxes on the rich. and vowed that the Trump administration would take a “targeted approach” to increase Coronavirus cases that would rely on masking and away from society. Mr. Trump has urged dozens of rallies he has staged over the past six days.
Trump’s campaign ran ads on Facebook, highlighted by rocket emojis, praising the president’s leadership over the economy.
Biden said many Americans will not feel better after Thursday’s GDP and employment figures. “Millions of people out there are in dissolution, on the edge, unable to see the light at the end of the tunnel. And Donald Trump gave up, ”Mr. Biden said in Broward County, Fla., Where people over 200 cars attended a driving rally.
Mr. Biden has proposed a $ 700 billion plan to stimulate the US economy, a strategy he thinks will rebuild the economy faster than Trump’s proposals.
The recovery is expected to slow in the fourth quarter due to the shake from the reopening economy and the gradual government stimulus, with the unemployment rate expected to remain rising this winter. .
The Wall Street Journal’s October survey with economists found that more than half of respondents did not expect GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels until next year and the economy would drop 3.6%. this year, starting from Q4 2019.
Analysts Trump and Biden have promised to create millions of jobs and continue to heal the economy if elected on Nov. 3. Analysts predict the economy will end in 2020 less than one. year earlier, but growth in 2021. America as of September recovered half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April, when the pandemic began.
The number of Americans filing first for unemployment insurance fell last week to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, although claims are still high by historic standards. Daily viral infections hit new highs over the past week and it is too early to tell how employers and consumers will react.
According to the Associated Press, so far 73.3 million early voting has been cast. This surpassed the early vote count four years ago, when 58.8 million people voted early or sent by mail. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia took the lead in early voting in 2016.
Mr Biden’s campaign-ending argument hinges on linking a prolonged economic recession with Trump’s virus handling.
Mr. Biden, who is scheduled to make a stop in Florida on Thursday, where the president is also campaigning, said earlier this week that Mr Trump “has collapsed the economy that Barack and I have left with him. that. But we can rebuild better with an economy that benefits jobs, not wealth.
Democrats are seeing the nation’s economic recovery as a permanent war. Mr. Biden’s companion, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, told reporters on Wednesday while campaigning in Nevada that the country’s recovery will not be the same as “turning a light switch.”
Mr. Biden’s political supporters have come up with new economic figures as proof that the US has a long way to go. “If you lose $ 100 and then get $ 65 back, do you feel affluent? That’s what today’s GDP numbers mean, ”wrote Steven Rattner, a Democratic financier and former Obama administration official on Twitter.
Both campaigns are set to give a final flash across the battlefield states on Friday and by the end of the week, with both presidential tickets hosting events in Michigan, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. and Wisconsin.
Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement Thursday that Doug Emhoff, husband of Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, tested negative with Covid-19 after A crew member flew on the plane assisting Mr. Emhoff for the test. positive earlier in the day. Mr. Emhoff in recent weeks has on behalf of his wife and Mr. Biden stepped up campaigning. Recently he has campaigned in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. After his visit to Ohio, he will show up in Las Vegas on Friday.
Starting his election campaign in 2020, Mr Trump expects a booming economy to be the focus of his reelection efforts, with economics being one of the few problems he has consistently outpaced Mr. Biden. in polls. In a Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll conducted from September 30 to October 1, voters considered Mr. Trump more suitable than Mr. Biden to handle the economy, 48% to 41%.
Under the Trump administration, the United States hit historic milestones in terms of employment, earnings, and stock prices until March, when an economic pandemic broke out.
Trump has spent weeks predicting record GDP growth. At a rally in Bullhead City, Ariz., On Wednesday, he urged supporters to “hold on to your vote until it happens”, telling the crowd: “If that number doesn’t big, you don’t even need to vote for me, AGREE? “
Write to Joshua Jamerson at firstname.lastname@example.org and Rebecca Ballhaus at Rebecca.Ballhaus@wsj.com