- Eta made landfall in central Cuba early on Sunday.
- The system is expected to reach Florida tonight with rain, wind, storm surge and high waves.
- Local heavy rains could last in Florida on Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Eta is moving through Cuba and will reach South Florida closest to South Florida tonight with hurricane intensity generating rains, storm surges, strong winds and waves.
(MAP: Latest Eta map tracking page)
Eta made landfall in Cuba early Sunday morning like a tropical storm, according to radar indicators from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
Current wind meter and warning
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for much of central Cuba, northwestern Bahamas and South Florida from the Brevard-Volusia County route to Englewood. This includes Nassau, Grand Bahama Island, entire Miami and Florida Keys metro area. This is where tropical storm conditions are typically predicted until the end of Monday.
Storm warnings are in effect for the south Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach and Florida Keys. Storm conditions are possible in this area on Sunday and Monday nights.
A storm surge observed for the south Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay and for the Florida Keys. This area can experience dangerous storm surges.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect along Florida’s west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, as well as parts of western Cuba, including Havana. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur in these areas.
Rainstrings continue to pour into the Florida Keys and South Florida with gusty winds and occasional heavy rain.
There have been several reports of winds between 40 and 50 mph across South Florida on Saturday and early Sunday. A strip of showers produced gusts of gusts of 53 mph at Dania Beach in Broward County on Saturday.
This is the Eta Center’s latest forecast line for the next five days from the National Hurricane Center.
Eta is expected to move north south of Florida like a strong tropical storm from Sunday night through early Monday.
After that, Eta is expected to turn west and be able to meander east of the Gulf of Mexico for a few days.
Near Florida, Eta’s strength will depend on the extent to which the storm experiences land-based interactions. Some vertical wind shear force will distort this storm and make it have a tough battle to ramp up.
Having said that, Eta could have been close to a hurricane power at that time.
Eta’s interaction with the dry air and / or cutting winds in the Gulf of Mexico is believed to keep its boost while it is in the Gulf of Mexico.
Keep track of the forecast
Some weather features will play pinball with Eta over the next few days.
Eta would first be driven northeast through Cuba, then north south Florida on counter-clockwise flow around a superior low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Eventually, when Eta ranks below this lower low, it will begin to drift west.
A high-pressure dome could also keep the tip of Eta facing west in the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a while.
Eta could then lose thrust away from the high-pressure peak, meaning it could significantly slow down or even stall on the west coast of Florida’s West Coast.
Eventually, the Eta could make a final landing somewhere along Florida’s Gulf Coast or the Northern Gulf Coast on the weekend, as it finally accelerates ahead of an approaching direct system.
However, there are a number of modeling solutions that predict that Eta will never return to ground, unable to cope with the aforementioned dry air and / or wind at the weekend.
So for now, residents along the Gulf Coast just need to follow the latest forecast for Eta and check back for updates.
Amount of rain
Eta is expected to generate the following total rainfall through the end of Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
Parts of the peninsula of central and southern Florida, including the Florida keys: 6 to 12 inches, for an isolated total of 18 inches
– Bahamas: Add 4 to 8 inches, for an isolated total of 15 inches
Cuban part: Add 5 to 10 inches, with total isolation of 25 inches
-Jamaica: Add 2 to 4 inches, for an isolated storm total of 15 inches
This could lead to significant flash floods in all of these areas, with the risk of landslides likely to occur in areas of higher terrain.
Flood watches are valid until Tuesday night in South Florida, including Miami-Ft. The Lauderdale metro area where it received heavy rain last month.
Eta caused floods and deadly landslides as it passed through the mountainous terrain of Central America, especially in Honduras. For more details on the flooding see our latest article linked below.
(THAN: And devastated Central America)
In general, flooding due to high tide is expected to occur along the Florida coast. Below are the latest tidal peak values from the NHC if they occur at high tide.
It should be noted that coastal flooding can occur over several high tide cycles, particularly on the Gulf side and in the Florida Keys at least on Tuesday, if not longer.
Surfing high currents
The slope between the high pressure near the east of the United States and the lower pressure of Eta will create strong winds that blow shoreline along Florida’s East Coast over the next few days.
That would allow high-speed currents and increased dangerous currents from Florida’s East Coast possibly as far north as North Carolina, peaking from Sunday to Monday, but extending in some areas on the weekend. Some of these areas are likely to experience coastal inundation, especially during high tide.
Eventually, surfing could begin to form along the Northern Gulf Coast later this week, depending on forecasts for Eta.
This is the time when tropical storm conditions are forecasted or probable, according to the NHC:
-Northwest Bahamas: Through Sunday night
South Florida, including Florida Keys: From Sunday to Monday
Damage can occur along small parts of the Florida coast, where winds exceed 60 mph. For most of the Floridians in the southern part of the state, wind conditions are Sunday and Monday.
Here’s a general schedule of when the strongest gusts of wind can happen:
Also, as is usual with tropical cyclones hitting the mainland, a few tornadoes could hit South Florida Sunday night.
Check weather.com again for an update to the forecast over the next few days.
Central America Rain flood Disaster floods
Nicaragua and Honduras witnessed ripped roofs, uprooted trees, bridges drifting, landslides and flooding of roads.
As fearful, torrential rains from Eta have caused massive flooding in Central America.
One of the worst affected regions is western Honduras.
Flooding flooded Ramón Villeda Morales international airport near San Pedro Sula, Honduras.
Water floods to the roofs in areas of San Pedro Sula, Thursday. Video shows hundreds of people on rooftops and second stories of buildings awaiting rescue. Some were trapped for 48 hours.
The water level along the Ulúa river in western Honduras is believed to have been 13 feet higher than the peak level of Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Catastrophic floods were also forecast along the Choluteca River in the town of Marcovia, south of Honduras, south of Tegucigalpa capital.
(THAN: Eta Activating Memories of Mitch 22 years ago)
A landslide in Guatemala has claimed the lives of at least 100 people.
Rainfall over 22 inches has been recorded at Tela on the Caribbean coast since Monday.
Several locations rain more than 10 inches in a day, including Puerto Barrios, Guatemala (13.98 inches).
The NHC has projected the total number of storms to reach 40 inches in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Eta’s Storm History
Eta is the 28th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, linked to the 2005 hurricane season with the most storms recorded. It is also the 12th storm of the season, ranking second in a year in the Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds in Eta increased from 70 mph to 150 mph in just 18 hours ending at 7pm EST Monday. That is more than double the criterion for the rapid strength of a tropical cyclone, ie wind speed increases 35 miles / hour or more in 24 hours or less.
At its peak at the end of Monday and early Tuesday, Eta is the third strongest November hurricane to record in the Atlantic in terms of wind speed and is only a Category 4 or higher hurricane in the second Atlantic. year occurred during the month. Paloma 2008 was the last category 4 hurricane in November in the Atlantic.
Eta is the ninth storm in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season with a rapid intensity.
According to Sam Lillo, a NOAA researcher based in Boulder, Eta’s central pressure dropped 82 millibars in the 48 hours that ended at 1 a.m. on November 3, one of the biggest pressure drops in 48. Now is recorded in the Atlantic basin, according to Sam Lillo, a NOAA researcher based in Boulder. According to Lillo, only Hurricanes Andrew, Rita and Wilma had greater or greater pressures over a 48 hour period than Eta.
The small storm produced continuous flashes of lightning in its glass on Monday afternoon, a sign of its intensity.
Eta’s eyes came along the Nicaragua coast about 15 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua around 4pm EST Tuesday. At the time, maximum sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph, a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, according to the NHC.
Eta is only the fifth category 4 or stronger storm recorded to hit Nicaragua, the first since 2007 Hurricane Felix.
The wind had hit 136 mph near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, Tuesday afternoon.
The NHC predicted a potentially destructive storm surge 14 to 21 feet above normal tidal water levels near where Eta landed. This is approximately the same as the magnitude of the storm surge experienced during typhoon Felix 5 in 2007.
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