- Eta is expected to strengthen on Saturday the Caribbean Sea.
- The system is expected to reach Florida with rain, wind, storm surges and high waves.
- Tropical storm conditions are likely to hit South Florida late on Sunday.
- Eta caused catastrophic floods in Central America.
Tropical Storm Eta is expected to intensify on Saturday as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean waters and will pass through or near Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida later this week early next week bringing in torrential rains, strong winds and waves.
Current wind meter and warning
Tropical storm warnings were issued for South Florida from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including the Florida Bay, as well as for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm conditions are expected from Sunday to Monday.
Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect along the east Florida coast, north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard / Volusia County line and for the west coast Florida, north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.
(MAP: Latest Eta map tracking page)
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cayman Islands, much of central Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas including Nassau, Grand Bahama Island and Abacos. Tropical storm situation is expected to appear in these areas later this week.
Tropical storm warnings continue in western Cuba, including in Havana, where a tropical storm is likely to occur later this week.
A gradual intensification is expected in the Caribbean before Tropical Storm Eta reaches Cuba but some longitudinal wind shear forces and dry air may limit its intensification.
Near Florida, the intensity of Eta will depend on the degree of interaction with the land the storm experienced.
Eta will be directed northeast on the northwestern Caribbean due to interaction with counter-clockwise current around a superior low-pressure system located in the Gulf of Mexico.
Eta is expected to interact or even match the upper lows later this week. That could allow Eta to be pulled north to just the south or even across the southern Florida peninsula like a tropical or subtropical hurricane late Sunday or Monday.
Eta was then expected to be dragged west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by a superior pressure system in the eastern states.
Eta may meander slowly for a day or so before it is pulled north by a superior bottom at the weekend.
(IN DEATH: Why can Eta be slow and malleable)
It would then make a final landing somewhere along Florida’s Gulf Coast or the Northern Gulf Coast over the weekend, as it eventually sped up ahead of an approaching direct system.
Eta’s interaction with the dry Gulf of Mexico air is believed to help halt its intensification.
At this point we do Not Eta’s predicted strengthened as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Amount of rain
Eta is expected to generate the following total rainfall through the end of Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
Bahamas and parts of the Florida peninsula, including Florida keys: 5 to 10 inches, for an isolated total of 15 inches
– The Cayman Islands into Cuban parts: Add 5 to 10 inches, for the isolated total of 25 inches
-Jamaica: Add 2 to 4 inches, for an isolated storm total of 15 inches
This could lead to significant flash floods in all of these areas, with the risk of landslides likely to occur in areas of higher terrain.
Flood watches are valid until Tuesday night in South Florida, including Miami-Ft. The Lauderdale metro area where it received heavy rain last month.
Eta caused floods and deadly landslides as it passed through the mountainous terrain of Central America, especially in Honduras. For more details on the flooding see our latest article linked below.
(THAN: And devastated Central America)
A storm is likely to be 2 to 4 feet high east and north where Eta tracks near Cuba.
In general, flooding due to high tide is expected to occur along the Florida coast. Below are the latest tidal peak values from the NHC if they occur at high tide:
Surfing high currents
The slope between the high pressure near the east of the United States and the lower pressure of Eta will create strong winds that blow shoreline along Florida’s East Coast over the next few days.
That would allow high-speed currents and increased dangerous currents from Florida’s East Coast possibly as far north as North Carolina, peaking from Sunday to Monday, but extending in some areas on the weekend. Some of these areas are likely to experience coastal inundation, especially during high tide.
This is the time when tropical storm conditions are forecasted or probable, according to the NHC:
–Ayman Islands: Saturday
-Cuba: Saturday and Sunday night
-Northwest Bahamas: Sunday
South Florida, including Florida Keys: Late Sunday
Also, as is usual with tropical cyclones hitting the mainland, a few tornadoes could hit South Florida Sunday night.
Check weather.com again for an update to the forecast over the next few days.
Central America Rain flood Disaster floods
Nicaragua and Honduras witnessed ripped roofs, uprooted trees, bridges drifting, landslides and flooding of roads.
As fearful, torrential rains from Eta have caused massive flooding in Central America.
One of the worst affected regions is western Honduras.
Flooding flooded Ramón Villeda Morales international airport near San Pedro Sula, Honduras.
Water floods to the roofs in areas of San Pedro Sula, Thursday. Video shows hundreds of people on rooftops and second stories of buildings awaiting rescue.
The water level along the Ulúa river in western Honduras is believed to have been 13 feet higher than the peak level of Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Catastrophic floods were also forecast along the Choluteca River in the town of Marcovia, south of Honduras, south of Tegucigalpa capital.
(THAN: Eta Activating Memories of Mitch 22 years ago)
Rainfall over 22 inches has been recorded at Tela on the Caribbean coast since Monday.
Several locations rain more than 10 inches in a day, including Puerto Barrios, Guatemala (13.98 inches).
The NHC has projected the total number of storms to reach 40 inches in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Eta’s Storm History
Eta is the 28th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, linked to the 2005 hurricane season with the most storms recorded. It is also the 12th storm of the season, ranking second in a year in the Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds in Eta increased from 70 mph to 150 mph in just 18 hours ending at 7pm EST Monday. That is more than double the criterion for the rapid strength of a tropical cyclone, ie wind speed increases 35 miles / hour or more in 24 hours or less.
At its peak at the end of Monday and early Tuesday, Eta is the third strongest November hurricane to record in the Atlantic in terms of wind speed and is only a Category 4 or higher hurricane in the second Atlantic. year occurred during the month. Paloma 2008 was the last category 4 hurricane in November in the Atlantic.
Eta is the ninth storm in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season with a rapid intensity.
According to Sam Lillo, a NOAA researcher based in Boulder, Eta’s central pressure dropped 82 millibars in the 48 hours that ended at 1 a.m. on November 3, one of the biggest pressure drops in 48. Now is recorded in the Atlantic basin, according to Sam Lillo, a NOAA researcher based in Boulder. According to Lillo, only Hurricanes Andrew, Rita and Wilma had greater or greater pressures over a 48 hour period than Eta.
The small storm produced continuous flashes of lightning in its glass on Monday afternoon, a sign of its intensity.
Eta’s eyes came along the Nicaragua coast about 15 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua around 4pm EST Tuesday. At the time, maximum sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph, a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, according to the NHC.
Eta is only the fifth category 4 or stronger storm recorded to hit Nicaragua, the first since 2007 Hurricane Felix.
The wind had hit 136 mph near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, Tuesday afternoon.
The NHC predicted a potentially destructive storm surge 14 to 21 feet above normal tidal water levels near where Eta landed. This is approximately the same as the magnitude of the storm surge experienced during typhoon Felix 5 in 2007.
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