The virus that causes COVID-19 was present in New York City long before the city’s first case was confirmed on March 1, researchers at Icahn Medical School in Mount Sinai said. Their studies show that more than 1.7 million New Yorkers – about 20% of the city’s population – have been infected with a virus, known as SARS-CoV-2, and the death rate from the virus is nearly 1%, ten times more deadly than the flu.
The results of the retrospective surveillance study of more than 10,000 plasma samples taken from early February to July will be published on nature on Tuesday, November 3.
The sharp increase in New York City infections occurred in the week ending March 8, followed by a significant increase in COVID-19 deaths in the week ending May 15. 3. The State of New York implemented a home stay order on March 22, after which the number of daily shifts began to stabilize in New York City and then decreased in April and May.
Very little testing is available at the start of a local epidemic in early March, but, “We now know there are many asymptomatic and mild to moderate cases that are likely to go undetected,” said Dr. Emilia Mia Sordillo, said. Associate Professor of Pathology, Cellular and Molecular Medicine, Director of Clinical Microbiology, an Associate Physician in Infectious Diseases at Icahn School of Medicine and Mount Sinai Health System, and a senior author level of the article. “In this study, we aim to investigate the dynamics of the infection in the general population and in people seeking urgent care.”
Research results were based on a data set of 10,691 plasma samples from Mount Sinai Health System patients taken and tested between February 9 and July 5. The first group included 4,101 samples from patients examined in Mount Sinai’s emergency departments and from hospitalized patients for urgent care. This group, known as the “urgent care” group, is an active control group designed to detect increasing cases of SARS-CoV-2 in people with moderate to severe COVID-19. as local translation progresses. The second group consists of 6,590 samples, known as the “general care” group, taken from patients at obstetrics and gynecology, labor and delivery visits, cancer-related examinations, hospital admissions for surgery. Elective surgery and transplant surgery, medical preoperative evaluation and related outpatient visits, cardiology office visits, and other general office / treatment visits. The researchers reasoned that these samples might be more similar to the general population because the purpose of these scheduled visits is not related to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. The urgent care group consisted of 45.5% female while the routine care group consisted of 67.6% female. The majority of individuals in the urgent care group are over 61 years old while the general care group has a more balanced age distribution, closer to the adult population in the general population.
To estimate the true prevalence, researchers measured the presence of antibodies to past SARS-CoV-2 infections, rather than the presence of a virus, over a period of time. weekly booth. The antibody test used in this study – an enzyme-linked immunosorption test (ELISA) – was developed and launched at Mount Sinai and can detect the presence or absence of resistance. to SARS-CoV-2, as well as the titer (level) of antibodies an individual has. The test’s high sensitivity and specificity – that is, a low rate of false-negative and false-positives – allows it to be among the first to receive an emergency license from the State of New York and the Department. US Food and Drug Administration.
“Our two-step ELISA test confirms the presence and level of antibodies. The use of two sequential assays reduces the rate of false positives and produces high specificity, resulting in a sensitivity of 95%. and the specificity is 100%, “said Dr. Viviana Simon. PhD, Professor of Microbiology and Medicine; member of the Faculty of Global Health and the Institute of Emerging Pathogens at the Icahn School of Medicine; and a senior author on the article.
Serum equivalence increased at different rates in both groups, and sharply increased in the urgent care group. Notably, positive serum samples were found as early as mid-February (several weeks before the first official cases) and increased slightly at over 20% in both groups after the outbreak. fell at the end of May. From May to July, the serum ratio and antibody titre remained stable, indicating long-lasting antibody levels in the population.
“Our data shows that the antibody titre is stable over time, the city serum rate is about 22%, so far at least 1.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with SARS- CoV-2 and the death rate from infection were 0.97 Florian Krammer, Ph.D., Professor of Immunization at Icahn School of Medicine and the respective author of the article stated percentages after the first outbreak in Thanh New York City. “We showed that infection rates were relatively high during the first wave in New York but far from serum rates that might indicate community immunity (herd immunity). Knowing the detailed dynamics of serum rates in this study is crucial for modeling serum rates elsewhere in the Country. ”
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Daniel Stadlbauer et al., Repeated cross-sectional serum monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City, nature (Year 2020). DOI: 10.1038 / s41586-020-2912-6
Provided by Mount Sinai Hospital
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