Yes, it’s historic, but it’s just an illusion of the peace President Trump has vowed to bring.
Back in January of this year, Trump released the features of what he calls the Vision for Peace – formally known as Peace for the Prosperity. The Palestinians boycotted and denounced it as money to buy land, in their view giving up the territory in exchange for promises of improved business prospects, while Israel threatened to take the land regardless.
In recent years, Trump has raised expectations for a groundbreaking deal between Palestine and Israel, and with it, the prospect of a collapse is even more severe if it fails.
The new deal tacitly acknowledged that Trump̵7;s original peace plan was dead, but it revived Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fortunes.
Netanyahu got what he wanted, decades of Arab impatience to reach an agreement on collapsing Israeli terms, little or no cost.
The prime minister’s push to annex Israeli-occupied lands in the West Bank could be a match to spark arid tensions, igniting Palestinians’ aspirations for a viable state of their own. surname. For now, the UAE appears to have dampened that outlook.
Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s erudite Foreign Minister, defined the success of the partial agreement as “Israel’s commitment to end the annexation of Palestinian lands, to maintain a two-state solution.”
At first glance, this deal sounds sure, but it’s sure to give one a headache, and the threat of escalation is only shifted down slightly. The clue lies in the word “suspend”.
The architect of the deal, Kushner, described it as such, “I believe them [Israel] will not act to move forward unless we have the understanding between the US and Israel that it is the right course of action at the right time. “
When asked if it might be his answer, how long is the string? Say, “Somewhere between long time and short time, that’s the temporary meaning.”
Netanyahu is without a doubt, temporary means.
“We got an interim wait request from President Trump. It was an interim suspension. It’s not removed from the table, I’m telling you that,” he said. He is also a good political executive, playing with a domestic audience, the takeovers are not the immediate goal, but the manipulation to turn negotiations in his favor.
Gargash seems to imply that the UAE is playing time, can calculate if the temporary run to the November US election, “we think there is never the time, never the right time. But at the same time if we actually get to this commitment it would be like diffusing a timer bomb on a two-state solution. “
So the timing is right for the UAE – sort of – but why now applies to other countries?
Both Trump and possibly Netanyahu face elections and need votes. And both are running out of time to cement a legacy, cementing their relatively controversial records in office. Netanyahu has a corruption trial hanging overhead, Trump’s legal troubles may well be coming.
In the Trump-UAE deal, gave Netanyahu the means to bury his crimes under a successful outcome of opening the lucrative Arab market for Israel’s high technology and security.
Look no further than the second paragraph of the joint statement on mutual applause and clues to the hype of the event, “This historic diplomatic breakthrough will promote peace in the Middle East and is a testament to the bold vision and diplomacy of the three leaders and the courage of the United Arab Emirates and Israel to lay out a new path that will unleash great potential in the region. “
Just yesterday, one of Trump’s National Security advisers, Robert O’Brien, declared that Trump deserved the Nobel Peace Prize.
Well why not, predecessor Barack Obama has one and this is part of an Obama legacy that Trump was unable to create – the next best thing to do is get one on his own.
What about the OTHER side, who if they were at the table that could turn this into a truly historic moment with profound regional significance, was the Palestinians.
In short, they feel sold out, again. President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority saw the deal as “an aggression against the Palestinian people” and “a betrayal of Jerusalem.”
His tough Palestinian rival, Hamas, equally dismissed, saying: “We strongly condemn, by all means, normalization with Israel, which is seen as a backstroke. to the cause of Palestine “.
However, the fact is, even if Gargash says it still exists the possibility of a Palestinian state perished if Netanyahu follows up on the West Bank’s threat to annex regions, Emirates highlights the post. on Arabic. Wall. The Palestinians are not drawing the support of the region they used to do, and that means the Gulf states – the people helping banks to sweep the Palestinians – are running out of patience.
This agreement reaffirms the Gulf’s view that the Palestinian leaders are seen as the problem, or rather that they fail to clear up corruption and negotiate the problem, despite the negotiating partner. Over the past decade, Netanyahu has not been a pleasant negotiating partner. Even as they play by the rules, the perception in the Palestinians’ homes is that the cards are always stacked against them, which is exactly what this agreement reinforces.
Gradually weakened by division and radicalism, the Palestinian status is wobbly than ever before. So when they made a mistake, they may be right, the UAE kicked their shin.
It remains to be seen, is it whether it is an “attention-grabbing” kick, like waking up and sniffing coffee, or is it designed to take down this generation of Palestinian leaders.
Gargash isn’t talking about turning off the taps, but he is implying that.
“We are committed to making a Palestinian state independent of Jerusalem as its capital, that is our political commitment. But on the other hand, I think we are part of the world, they are.” I am a major supporter of the history of the Palestinians financially politically. and if not, “he said.
So is it a good deal?
Gargash’s “time bomb” is also ticking them. Witness an almost catastrophic backlash when Trump killed Iran’s top-ranked Qasem Soleimani in January this year.
Stakes in the region are high, Iraq is unstable, at war in Syria, Lebanon falls into political freedom, Yemen’s war continues and infuses all of that as a major. Iran’s foreign policy seeks stability and boosts the skies – Tensions with the United States move toward crisis.
If all of that is not enough to encourage the UAE to move towards compromise on an epic move for them, the post-coronavirus economic slaughter threat is raging the fragility in the region to heights. more.
For Trump, who lives on short-term semi-political, the deal is still an intention, with nothing but a hot political atmosphere until signing after three weeks.
The trial will lead to a promise that bilateral agreements will be signed on “investment, travel, direct flight, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, culture, and more. field “yields clear results.
Netanyahu is now less anxious, the immovable object of Arab opposition to Israel’s terms so far and Trump has said more Arab countries will join.
Even if you’re Palestinian, the deal is better than drowning, but only to a minor extent.
And how long can all sides continue to trample? It may be up to US voters and a president with the acumen, energy and passion to make a real difference, and without that, stepping on water would be great for. Netanyahu.
Anyone out first?
The UAE has undoubtedly supported its larger regional partner, Saudi Arabia, diplomatically. And gained some, albeit temporarily, leverage on regional security, while at the same time maintaining some independence in Trump’s hawk policies toward Iran.
And whatever the UAE gets from the Palestinians, the Arab street is not a sure rule so the cost is low.
In the end the deal was only as strong as it was for both sides, and once again with Trump in office, Netanyahu seemed to have captured the majority of it.