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Home / US / The GOP is increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate

The GOP is increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate



Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst won Senate and Republican star six years ago with a promise to come to Washington and “make them squeal”, like the pigs she was castrated on a farm. the family grew up.

If someone screams this year, it is Ernst and other Senate Republicans locked in intense races against Democrats challenges in a large number of states. often.

In places like Iowa, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Maine, Republicans hope President Trump will defy the polls to win, taking them with him. Otherwise, they will need to attract enough rare voters who split votes to support Democrat Joe Biden for the presidency and a Senate Republican.

According to many political forecasters and polls, the Republican party is likely to lose control of the Senate next year. To gain majority, Democrats will have to choose three or four seats if Trump is re-elected).

Given the extent of the Senate̵

7;s tight division, a 50-50 split is entirely possible. And if Biden wins, Democrats can rely on Vice President Kamala Harris to break all Senate ties.

But the Senate binding will almost certainly cause the stalemate, because Democrats will not be able to afford to lose even one vote from their caucus.

The fate of the Senate elections increasingly depends on the results of the presidential race over the past several years of presidential elections. In 2016, they fell into perfect alignment: where did Trump win, so did the Republican candidate; and the same goes for Hillary Clinton and Democrats. So far in 2020, polls show that trend could continue.

Senate Republicans “may outperform Trump in some of these places, but given the status of polls, the match rate is most likely the cause of Republicans losing their Senate. ”, Says Kevin Madden, longtime Republican adviser to the president and congressional candidate.

In this completely polarized environment, there is nothing in the favor of Senate Republicans trying to separate themselves from Trump right now. They will risk losing support from Trump’s tough base to lure the remaining few undecided independent companies. And those independent people can be fickle and unreliable voters, especially compared to Trump loyalists.

Senator John Thune (RS.D.), the Republican No. 2 in the council said that their luck is largely tied to the president’s performance in the lead. “That doesn’t mean they can’t win without him, but it certainly means their chances of winning will be enhanced if he performs well.”

Trump does not seem to see a correlation.

“I can help some. I don’t think I hurt anyone. But I don’t see them tied together, I’ve never done so, ”Trump said recently in Arizona, where Sen. Martha McSally is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. “I can do wonderfully well in this state and we might have a Senate candidate doing incredibly bad.”

In both Arizona and North Carolina, the Senate’s incumbent Republicans are closely following Trump in the polls, meaning they’ll need the president to win some points to get any push from the rallies. According to a Republican working in races in the Senate.

Democrats were expected to lose a seat in Alabama but won a seat in Colorado. They were privileged to win seats held by the GOP in Arizona and to a lesser extent in Maine. Iowa and North Carolina are the topples. Further towards Democrats are GOP strongholds such as South Carolina, Montana, Kansas and Texas, which appeared in polls to outstrip Republicans, but now party officials feel they have withdraw. Two Republican-held seats in Georgia could be disqualified if no candidate gets 50% of the vote next week.

In order for Republicans to have a way to hold the Senate, they will likely have to beat the Democratic seats in Michigan and Minnesota. While polls have tightened in both states, Democrats have remained ahead outside the margin of error. According to GOP officials, the best Republicans can hope for is probably the Senate 51-49.

The Iowa bounce made that race one of the most expensive in the country. While Ernst earned more than eight percentage points in 2014 and Trump beat Clinton more than nine just two years later, Trump’s drag has left it in disarray, strategists say.

“Certainly, Trump is conducting a much closer election in Iowa than in 2016,” said a Republican official working in the race. “As part of the Iowa party narrowed in this cycle, it could contribute to the fact that it was a tighter run than we had in year 14, which was a turbulent year for Republican Party. ”

The peasant girl, mother, and a military veteran won her seats in 2014 with people’s conservatism attracting the founding of the GOP as well as tea party conservatives, who were to rule the party four years earlier. During her first year in the Senate, she was given the senior task of delivering the Republican response to President Obama’s speech on the Union, and quickly became a member of the committee. leader of the Republican Party.

Hoping for a second term, Ernst’s camp is showcasing her work on ethanol – important to Iowa farmers – as well as her work on veterans and USMCA deals. Trade of Trump.

Republican strategists who participate in the race but remain anonymous to talk freely blame the more than $ 100 million they say Democrats have poured into the state to obscure Ernst’s records – they aired in early 2020 – and boosted her Democratic rival, Theresa Greenfield.

The campaign ads say Ernst went to Washington, lost his Iowa roots and never called them – a message that resonated with some voters.

Toni Sumpter, a 60-year-old retired pharmacist living in the suburbs of Des Moines, said she “had no major complaints” with Ernst, but Greenfield’s interest in enhancing Social Security and preserving Obamacare has helped her support. As a traditional but non-exclusive Democratic voter who voted for Biden and Greenfield, she doesn’t see any value in splitting her vote.

“For me, it’s important to have the Senate controlled by the Democrats. That’s the only way you get things done, ”she said.

As Republican fortunes fell for suburban women – in Iowa as well as in the rest of the country – they rose in the countryside. In fact, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in 2018 increased profits for Ernst in the most rural parts of the state in 2014, suggesting that Ernst could make up for suburban losses in the countryside. Large village of Iowa.

Greenfield’s path lies in the large number of voters in urban and suburban areas of the state, and convinces voters who support Obama but support Trump to return to Democrats. Ernst’s camp says that Greenfield will follow Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (DN.Y.) ‘s freedom agenda, such as Green New Deal and Medicare for All. Greenfield says she opposes those policies.

With the end of November 3, some Republicans quietly argued that with Biden soaring in the polls, Republicans should hold on to the Senate to examine the Democrats and The White House.

The National Republican Senate Committee, which promotes Senate Republican candidates, ran an Iowa ad questioning that possibility.

“What if they have all the power?” said the advertisement, with pictures of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), Schumer and Biden. “Stop the nightmare freedom.”

A similar ad has run in Montana. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins is pitching her importance to the state “no matter who you are voting for the presidency.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Argued Friday that a GOP-led Senate would serve as a better scrutiny of the Biden administration. “The solution to this problem is 51 Republican senators,” he said on the Hugh Hewitt program.

Times writer Noah Bierman in Washington contributed to this report.




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