In our electoral college outlook ahead of our last election, we are transitioning Arizona from a lean Democracy to a truly battlefield state. This is a state that has been at the heart of the Democratic Party̵7;s map expansion project for the past decade, and 2020 could be the year it topples. However, the out-of-state probe results in the last 24 hours show that it is an error increase state. Arizona has only been won by one Democratic presidential candidate in the past 70 years, and that was when Bill Clinton won the state in his 1996 re-election campaign.
The demographic change in the state coupled with the huge success of Democrats in the suburbs during the Trump era are reasons for Democrats to hope there. But Trump’s poll numbers there look markedly better than the other states where we’ve leaned Democrats on the map, which potentially puts this state within his reach. that is greater than the states in the upper Midwest and the Rust Belt.
Of course, a move doesn’t change much in the overall outlook on Election Day. Biden began his path towards 270 electoral votes with a solid base of 16 states plus the District of Columbia for a total of 203 electoral votes. Then, if you add seven states and one district parliament in Nebraska that is currently leaning in his direction, Biden receives a total of 279 electoral votes – enough to win the presidency.
Trump’s path to 270 relies on voter turnout on election boom to compensate for the advantage Biden appears to have in breaking early, mail, and absent voting records. In our final outlook, Trump has 20 states with a total of 125 electoral votes in his tally. If you add 38 Texas electoral votes currently on his side, the President is at 163 electoral votes.
We currently have six states and a congressional district in Maine that is a mere battlefield that has won a total of 96 electoral votes.
Obviously Trump’s path to re-election is much narrower than Biden’s, but it’s still a viable one. And, while 2020 is a fundamentally different political environment from 2016, he showed the ability to pave the way just four years ago.
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (125 total)
Republicans lean toward:
Texas (38) (38 total)
The battlefield states:
Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) (96 total)
Based on democracy:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10) (76 total)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) (203 total)