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Texas County Elections Analysis by County




Demographic changes and suburban backlash have not stopped President Trump from winning the State of Lone Star, even though he did so at a smaller disparity than in 2016. Even if the urban and suburban areas moved a large number towards Democrats, many Hispanic voters in the south had suddenly exited the Democratic coalition.

San antonioDallasAustinLaredoStepMcAllenHouston

Change from 2016

Nearly all of their votes were reported in the counties

More democratic

Other Republicans

The Rio Grande valley turned decisively toward Trump, as Hispanic areas along the border with Mexico, including Hidalgo, McAllen’s hometown, distributed enough votes to help cancel eliminate the impact of white voters in urban and suburban areas.

Starr, a rural border district affected by high coronaviruses this summer, has the biggest change. Hillary Clinton won the county with 60 percentage points in 2016; Joseph R. Biden Jr. Won it when there were only five. Other border districts, including Maverick, Hidalgo and Cameron, also fell sharply compared to 2016.


There are signs of a Hispanic movement leaning toward Republicans as former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, lost his place in several Spanish counties in the 2018 race against Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican. In Hidalgo County, for example, Clinton won 41 percentage points in 2016, Mr. O’Rourke got 38 points in 2018 and Mr. Biden got only 17 points.

The state’s I-35 corridor, from the northern suburb of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro to San Antonio, is brimming with newly formed Democrats, mostly white and educated. The Houston suburbs also moved in the direction of Mr. Biden.

Change in yield rates for counties from 2016

Proportion of population
it is white

+ 25D

0

+ 25r

Whiter

Less white

Proportion of population 25+
with a college degree

+ 25D

0

+ 25r

College more

Less college

Proportion of population
it’s Spanish

+ 25D

0

+ 25r

Added Spanish language

Less Spanish

Texas has become politically competitive partly because of its growing diversity and because its white suburbs have grown more moderate. Districts outside of the suburbs – mostly whites, and richer areas commonly known as suburbs – have also seen some movement to the left.

Democrats have benefited from the state’s growing number of college graduates, young voters and minorities.

Despite these changes, Mr. Trump still leads in most counties outside major cities.



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