The latest data shows that Tesla (TSLA) still holds an impressive 18% market share in the global electric car market.
That is about to change, and it won’t be a bad thing for Tesla, who is about to get a smaller piece of cake in a much larger one.
For many years now, Tesla has led the electric vehicle market (BEV and PHEV) with volume production and a number of vehicle programs.
The Model 3 and Model Y are leading EV sales in many markets, while the Model S and Model X are still beating many other electric models in volume.
Other carmakers are only able to achieve a fraction of Tesla’s sales in this sector because they are mostly stuck on low volume compliant electric cars.
As a result, Tesla now holds about 18% of the global electric vehicle market by 2020 while Volkswagen is in second place with only a third of Tesla’s production (via EV Sales Blogspot):
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However, this dominance of Tesla is about to change as the overall electric vehicle market is about to change significantly over the next few years.
Currently, Tesla has about 18% of the global electric vehicle market, and itself accounts for about 3% of the global passenger car market.
In short, Tesla has a small piece of cake.
Things are about to change rapidly with more than a dozen brand-new electric vehicle programs rolling out over the next 12 months and more coming in the next few years.
I personally predict that the market share of electric vehicles will double to 7-10% of the global auto market by 2021 alone.
I expect Tesla to increase sales by about 50% next year which should help, but I think Volkswagen with ID.3 and ID.4, Audi with Q4 e-tron, Ford with Mustang Mach E Nissan, Ariya and others will have a bigger impact than Tesla’s 50% sales increase.
As a result, Tesla’s share of the electric vehicle market will drop, but it will be a smaller share of a much larger market. I think they will remain the leader, but will get closer to 12% of the market if electric vehicle sales are between 7 and 10% of the global auto market.
What do you think will be the market share of electric vehicles in 2021? Let us know your predictions in the comments section below.
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