New CBS polls show the supposed Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden 6 percentage points ahead of likely voters in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, battlefield states. importantly, Hillary Clinton lost less than 1 point in the 2016 election.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change until the election and the states’ polls on the battlefield should be seen as broken salt, but the results show that Biden could have the advantage. More in the Rust Belt states helped Trump win in 2016 – and that Trump’s puzzled response to the coronavirus crisis is playing a key role in Biden̵7;s ratings.
While polls conducted on behalf of CBS by YouGov between August 4 and 7, which show Biden the lead, it is important to note that the former vice president’s lead is in the margin of error. of both polls, which means Trump may actually be voting slightly better than Biden. In Pennsylvania, polls found Biden ahead of Trump with 49% support compared to 43% for the president. That poll was 3.7 percentage points wrong, meaning Trump could have 46.7 percent support and Biden just 45.3 percent.
The Wisconsin poll – with a 3.8 percentage point error – found that Biden led Trump 48% to 42%.
In both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, independent voters supported Biden. Clinton lost this group in both states to Trump; and Biden is also outperforming Clinton’s vote among white voters with and without college degrees. However, it should be noted that the two data points cannot be directly compared – while the polling data in this case comes from voters who are likely to or may not actually vote, the polling data. 2016 came from voters who took, Off.
The pollsters found views on the coronavirus pandemic to be strongly correlated with candidate preference – in fact, in analyzing the survey data, CBS found that opinion Pandemic issues are more closely related to voting than is about the economy.
“Those who say the Wisconsin boom is a crisis are voting for Biden in greater numbers than those who say the economy is very bad. A small group of people think that boom is not a big deal for Trump with a larger number of voters saying the state’s economy is doing well, ”the analysis said.
Public perception of the president’s pandemic response is polarizing – and polls in recent months have shown the public see this as the most important issue facing the nation. CNN poll expert Harry Enten has argued that this is bad news for Trump, as historical poll data shows that “whoever is most trusted on the non-economic issue is is likely to win the election “.
The state survey should be done with a grain of salt
Voting in battleground states is very important – especially when the presidential elections of the United States are determined by the electoral college, not a popular vote. But the state’s voting also has significant limitations, and Biden’s consistent lead there (including other states like Michigan, Florida, and North Carolina) should not be seen as a sure sign of victory. he was in those states and the general election.
Consider that a poll by the Marquette Law School in Wisconsin in late October 2016 gave Clinton a 6 percentage point gain – the same advantage Biden had in CBS polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – but Trump finally won the state 0.7 points.
As Vox’s Li Zhou explained, there were many reasons why some state polls in 2016 were unsuccessful compared to the final election results. Some of them have been corrected during this electoral cycle – for example, in the coming 2016, some polls have represented Clinton voters because they did not consider education and that. no longer true. (CBS survey has weights for education.)
But there are still many obstacles. The poll is always a snapshot of a particular time and in the end cannot provide insight into the likelihood of someone sharing their interests with a poll. will actually show up in the polling booth on Election Day, just as it is impossible to predict the patterns of late – voters break through their decisions about their candidate in the final days before the election (something played a key role in Trump’s victory).
Adding to the uncertainty is the pandemic making predictions based on particularly difficult polls, as Zhou explained:
Specifically, the use of postal voting due to the coronavirus pandemic makes it much more difficult to predict the constituency of voters. It is not clear how voter turnout will match compared to previous years because of public health concerns about actual polling sites and questions around the number of people who will use the leaves. mailed slip.
“It’s very hard to do a voter-model of voters because you’re not sure who will show up. It will be even more difficult in an election with a lot of vote-by-mail voting, ”says University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson.
The bottom line: the poll is promising for Biden, but not to be confused with the perfect predictions of the outcome.
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