“There is no way. There is no way,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, an immunologist at Baylor College of Medicine and a CNN medical analyst.
Last week, President Trump said he was “optimistic” a vaccine would be ready on Election Day 3/11.
“I believe we’ll have the vaccine by the end of the year, but around that day, yes. I think so,” Trump said on Thursday.
CNN obtained a portion of the email Moderna sent Friday to key investigators about their vaccine trials. It says 4,536 study subjects have signed up for the trials.
The trial started from the morning of July 27 and plans to enroll 30,000 research subjects. The company said it was “on track to complete its admissions in September”;.
Moderna won’t hit those 30,000 by September if they continue at the pace for the first two weeks, but it’s likely the enrollment rate will increase, as as of Friday only 54 out of 89 study locations Research is active, according to the company emailing its researchers.
Moderna’s numbers increased significantly from the first week of the test to the second week.
Infectious disease experts say, even if Moderna hits its full enrollment target in September, the company will still have no vaccines on the market on Election Day.
“I don’t know how that could have happened,” said Dr. Paul Offit, immunization doctor at Philadelphia Children’s Hospital.
After Moderna registered its subjects and gave them their first shot, they had to wait 28 days before giving their second shot.
That means participants signing up at the end of September won’t get a second shot until the end of October. Offit said they then had to wait two weeks for the vaccine to take effect.
“That will get you past Election Day,” said Offit.
Researchers then have to wait and see who gets sick with Covid-19 and who doesn’t. Half of the study participants were getting a real vaccine, and half were either given a placebo or had no effect. Neither the participants nor the vaccinating doctor know who received the vaccine.
Both Offit and Hotez predict the earliest results from the Moderna study in Q1 of 2021.
“Maybe before Inauguration Day, we can know if a vaccine is working, and we can assess its safety,” Hotez said.
The National Institutes of Health is working with Moderna on the coronavirus vaccine.
“I can’t comment on whether their subscription made at the end of September is realistic, but I think the daily number of subscriptions will increase over the next few weeks compared to their numbers. in the first two weeks “. Said Dr. Francis Collins, director of NIH.
Dr Carl Fichtenbaum, who is running the Moderna trial at the University of Cincinnati, said he plans to begin admitting patients at his facility in mid-August. He attracted 500 patients and 2,500 patients contacted him to inquire about the trial.
“We’re getting good numbers,” he said of the test. “I think this accumulation will hit its target pretty quickly.”
Bourla said they had vaccinated more than 2,000 children in the first week of August.
Bourla added that he thinks “at the end of September, early October” Pfizer will know if the vaccine is working and will contact the US Food and Drug Administration for regulatory review. October. He told the Post that he hopes to get approval quickly and the vaccine will be produced and ready for distribution.
Hotez and Offit both said that Bourla’s timetable seemed very unlikely, as like Moderna, Pfizer had to take two injections, wait for the vaccine to take full effect, then follow the study subjects to see. are they sick with Covid-19.