Storm Precautions means winds above 75 miles per hour are Feasibility. As I mentioned in my Saturday morning post, when there’s a 65-wind forecast during an disorganized and growing storm, you plan to add or subtract 15 miles per hour.
Now that Eta is a tropical storm and closer to us, we’ll reduce the range of errors a bit – say 10 or 15 miles an hour. Since the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast for Eta̵7;s peak wind to peak at 70 mph, it is clear that there could be winds above 75 mph, they issued a Storm Alert.
Of course, there was a difference in perception, if Eta overcame the hurricane force. But 5 or 10 miles per hour isn’t really that noticeable. The structure of the storm is still expected to be the same as I discussed this morning. It will not be symmetrical. The worst weather would be north and east of the center.
The seventh rain is actually related to the old front through the beginning of the week. It was being pushed north by the same jet of jet pushing Eta.
The current schedule of Eta’s impact on South Florida is as follows: The associated forward rains will continue to move north. There might be a bit of a gap, and then Eta-related rains will move early tomorrow, through tomorrow night, and at least until Monday morning. The wind will get stronger tomorrow as the tropical downpours become more and more intense. It seems that the current maximum wind peak will appear late tomorrow to tomorrow night / early Monday morning.
Flooding due to heavy rains is a significant threat as gusts of wind will spin in the ocean and can cover similar areas for a long time. The National Weather Service has issued Flood Alerts for all of South Florida. They are forecasting rainfall between 6 and 12 inches, with greater precipitation in isolated areas.
The National Hurricane Forecasting Center forecasts that storm surges will be 2 to 4 feet higher than normal, flooding low-lying areas. Be careful where you park your car if your neighborhood has floods in King Tides.
There is also a risk of power failure. When winds exceed 40 mph, branches can interfere with power lines. Get ready with a flashlight and charge everything just in case.
Here’s a slightly tweaked version of Saturday morning’s post with details about the atmospheric model, steering system, etc.
Eta is being pushed north by a heavy jet over the Gulf of Mexico. This stream of diving and tipping jets will have a lot of impact on Eta’s future.
Besides lifting Eta north, a drop is pushing thunderstorms from the center up. It also temporarily makes the atmosphere on the storm’s path conducive to intensifying. In essence, soaking in the beam is to lift the air, help the beams to grow, to help increase circulation. This is why Eta strengthened into a tropical storm today.
But over time, strong winds combined with a drop would push dry air into Eta’s circulation and cause the storm to tilt further north. Both of these effects have negative effects on Eta’s strength.
All of this means that the Eta’s top wind is unlikely to spike – although we have to realize that the forecast for the next few days has an average error of about 15 miles per hour. It also means that bad weather will be north of the center, meaning that the forecast cone has no relation to where the strongest winds will be and the heaviest rainfall will be.
For example, if the mind tracks on the Keys above, as shown in the cone, then the possible strongest rain and wind strip is above Dade, Broward or further north. And there will be more wind whistles with winds of 50 mph, and more under exceptional circumstances.
The spread of wind and rain from Eta to the north will coincide with the storm merging with the superior system involved in a decrease in jet flow. Eta’s structure will become like an airplane – shaped like a comma.
Due to Eta’s forecasts to scale up, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning of winds of more than 40 mph on the entire southern half of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys. The Bahamas government has also issued warnings for the Northwest Bahamas.
As Eta’s center approaches the Keys and southeast Florida late on Sunday and early Monday, wind strength and rainfall intensity will increase and spread northward. The rain will not be consistently heavy, but under one of the bands that spins in the ocean, a lot of rain could fall because the strips won’t move too fast. This is expected to extend to Monday.
Peak effects from Eta are currently expected towards the end of Sunday or early Monday. Once again, the strongest winds and the greatest rain with good potential to be displaced north of the center of the storm are shown on the cone.
The National Weather Service has issued Flood Alerts for South Florida. Total precipitation between 8 and 12 inches is projected. The problem is, the ground is saturated due to the excess rainfall that we have had this year.
Since most of the bad weather will be north and east of the center, if the center goes through the Keys, the islands to the left of the track will have much less rain and wind.
Eta can transition from a so-called tropical storm to a subtropical hurricane. So don’t be surprised if you see that indication. It just means that the strongest winds are not around the center, but are shifted north, in this case.
Eta’s entanglement and a drop in upstream jet currents will slow the system early in the week when it’s in the southwest Florida neighborhood, meaning we could have a long time. of bad weather. Since the path is expected to keep most of Florida peninsula north or east of the storm for at least a few days – where there is a tropical moisture supply – rain and gusts of wind could extend on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on the monitoring situation of the Eta center.
It was also possible that enough dry air enveloped the Eta’s circulation causing things to improve significantly on Monday. How that will play out is not certain.
Watch out for parking – avoid putting your car under a tree. Leave the flashlight on standby and make sure everything is fully charged in case of a power failure in high winds. Keep pool furniture or anything else that could blow outside or on your balcony.
If not, just use common sense. Get out of the way during heavy rain and watch out for local flooding.
And by the way, there’s another area in the middle of the Atlantic that could become the 29th storm of the year. It will not be a threat to the United States
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