Wall Street futures fluctuated sharply between bullish and bearish prices early on Wednesday after President Trump said he won re-election against Joseph R. Biden Jr. interfere with the race.
The closer-than-expected voting results in the US presidential election have swayed the market, as global investors watch what some have expected as a failed win turns into an open nail. The outlook for resolution is rapidly narrowed. Mr Trump’s comments only add some uncertainty.
Futures, down after Mr. Trump’s statement, rebounded some points so that the S&P 500 was up less than half a percent when trading started, while the Dow Jones industrial average was poised to fall. light.
European markets open about 1% lower and then regain some of their losses when traders start for what might be a long wait for results.
Investors are taking a wait and see approach but Trump’s comments are a reminder that it could be a volatile session, said Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Before that, the Asian market ended in mixed fashion after a turbulent cycle.
One of the biggest fluctuations is the US Treasury bond yields, one indicator of investor anxiety. Yields decrease as prices rise, indicating a greater desire to deposit money in a safe place.
Investors saw a clearer path on Tuesday, as they valued a relatively quick win for Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee. A strong victory for him and his party could set the stage for a flu pandemic relief spending package in Washington early next year. That could boost the economy, boost consumer spending, and support growth even as coronavirus infections rise again. It also means a large short-run deficit, potentially pushing up long-term rates higher.
But financial markets have been affected as traders and experts who witnessed early returns point to an approximate result, increasing the likelihood that President Trump could be re-elected and the Senate remains in Republican control. On the one hand, Mr Trump’s low taxes and restrictive regulations are commonplace among investors. On the other hand, analysts have made it clear that a divided government can compromise the opportunity for a large package of spending. Investors may also be wary that a delayed vote count could lead to a long period of uncertainty.
Gregory Daco, US chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: “You don’t see the big blue wave that was predicted very early on,” said Gregory Daco, US chief economist at Oxford Economics, know.
In Japan, the Nikkei increased 1.7%, but other markets in the region were less active after a volatile day.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 0.79 percent. This is the strongest drop in a day since the end of March.
Among non-scientific indicators, two Chinese stocks have come along with polls based on their names. A company is called Wisesoftwhose name in Chinese sounds like “Uncle Trump won wisely,” was up more than 7% at one point on the Shenzhen City Stock Exchange.
Another Shenzhen stock, Zhejiang Giuseppe Garments, fell more than 1% earlier in the day. Its name in Chinese sounds a bit like “Joe Biden” if spoken over a hard phone line.
Voters in Florida on Tuesday passed a voting measure that will increase the state’s minimum wage to $ 15 by 2026.
According to the National Conference of state legislatures, Florida became the eighth state in the country to issue a minimum wage of $ 15, but was the first state that Donald Trump gave in the 2016 presidential election. The District of Columbia has also issued a minimum wage of $ 15.
Florida’s measure, known as Amendment 2, won a place in Tuesday’s vote in December and needed at least 60 percent of the votes to pass. With 99 percent of the votes counted, the measure has a little more than 61 percent.
Under this measure, the state’s minimum wage will increase from its current level of $ 8.56 to $ 10 in September and then by $ 1 each September through 2026. Then, Annual increase will be associated with inflation.
A study by the Florida Institute of Policy, a consulting group advocating for wage increases, found that higher wages directly benefit 2.5 million workers in the state.
Several studies have found that a moderate increase in minimum wages does not lead to significant job loss. But economists warn that the effect on employment depends on the size of the increase relative to the city or state’s wage scale.
That could make the $ 15 minimum wage more expensive in a state like Florida, where wages tend to be significantly lower than those in other states that have issued the $ 15 minimum wage.
California voters on Tuesday passed Proposition 22, a voting measure that allows contract economy companies like Uber and Lyft to continue to treat drivers as independent contractors.
The vote opens a path for firms to amend labor laws across the country.
Uber, Lyft, and delivery service DoorDash designed this to exempt companies from state labor laws forcing them to hire drivers and pay for health care, unemployment insurance and benefits. other. As a concession to labor advocates, this initiative offers floor salaries and limited benefits for drivers.
The AP news agency predicted earlier on Wednesday that Prop 22 had brought in 58% of the vote. Prop 22 has the strongest opposition in San Francisco, where Uber and Lyft are headquartered, with a deficit of more than 19 points. Aggressive labor groups and state lawmakers against ride-hailing and delivery startups spent $ 200 million in support of the measure.
With a fostered gig working model in California, Uber and other contract economy firms are expected to pursue federal law to protect them from similar employment laws in other states. .
Bradley Tusk, a venture capitalist who advised Uber on political issues in its early years, said: “The past 14 months in California have been the most critical point in this regard.
However, their victory comes as lawmakers and federal officials increasingly desire access to great technology. Members of Congress on both parties support the suppression of social media companies and control over companies like Amazon and Google. Uber and peers in its gigs economy could get caught up in that anti-tech sentiment.
Sandwiched between Tuesday’s elections and Friday’s October employment report, the Federal Reserve will announce its November policy decision.
It is more likely that the central bank will rank low at Thursday’s meeting, both because of the dull economic outlook and because the Fed is politically independent and will want to avoid including itself in the electoral plot.
Gregory Daco, US chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: “I don’t think they want to get involved in anything political – anywhere close to anything political. Although Chairman Jerome H. Powell will inevitably face election-related questions at his webcast press conference, he is more likely to avoid them.
“I’m sure he’s preparing in front of the mirror right now to answer some of these questions,” said Mr. Daco.
The Fed lowered interest rates to almost zero in March and bought about $ 120 billion of government-backed bonds each month to calm the market and support demand. Officials are expected to discuss their future bond buying plans at this meeting, but economists expect them to delay big decisions because of the path ahead of the platform. The economy still has many uncertainties.
Production data has shown improvement recently. Spending on commodities rose sharply, underpinned by savings stored earlier in the year even as extended unemployment benefits expired and small business loans dried up. However, the situation can turn dark as consumers run out of savings and coronavirus infections increase, and job growth is slowing.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimated that employers could have brought back or added 600,000 workers by October, a relatively small figure compared to the millions of Americans who still don’t yet have a job. .
Fed officials have historically received significant numbers of jobs from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers before announcing Friday morning. But a secure fax containing that data is usually sent on Thursday afternoon, said a person familiar with the process. Officials won’t know the October numbers ahead of their meeting.
Regardless of who is elected, the next president will face an economy that’s still reeling from its shutdown last spring. Some regions have bounced back, but others remain depressed and millions of Americans are still out of work.