A new electoral model released by FiveThirtyEight presents the hypothetical Democratic candidate joe BidenJoe BidenNAACP seeks to boost the number of black voters in six states. Biden greeted Trump saying that Harris would be the ‘good choice’ for VP Kamala Harris pick: The conventional (and predictable) option all with MORE 71% chance of winning the White House, compared with 29% for President TrumpDonald John TrumpDemocrat urges the White House to pull out ambassador in Belarus on candidate TikTok that has gathered data from mobile to track Android users: report Peterson’s preliminary win at Minnesota House in key district MORE.
Analysis gives Trump a greater chance of re-election than other current models.
For example, The Economist’s forecast only gives Trump a 10% chance of winning at this point.
The FiveThirtyEight model that started with Biden as a favorite is largely attributed to his lead in polls.
Biden has a nationwide lead of 8 points in the FiveThirtyEight model, down from 9.6 points a month ago. Biden took a clear lead in the poll’s average score in 5 of the 6 main battlefield states: Florida (5.2 points), Wisconsin (6.2 points), Michigan (7.4 points), Pennsylvania (6 , 3 points) and Arizona (3.4 points).
Biden leads 1.4 points or less in North Carolina and Ohio. Trump leads 1.5 points or less in Georgia, Texas and Iowa.
That analysis gives Biden more room for flaws and a bigger path to victory than it currently is, and the polls have been relatively stable for months.
However, FiveThirtyEight’s editor-in-chief Nate Silver notes that many things could change in the final 83 days before the Nov. 3 election. Conventions and debates are still ahead, and no one knows the coronavirus. or what the economy will look like in three months.
“Biden only named his partner yesterday,” Silver wrote. “And the campaign that is underway in the midst of a pandemic that the United States has not seen in over 100 years, is also causing an unprecedented economic upheaval.”
Historically, it is not uncommon for the polls to change quite radically from mid-August until Election Day, Silver added. “Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will be tighter, and that President Trump is likely to have an edge in a close election because of the Electoral College.”
Analysts say Trump has the potential to lose 4 points of the national popular vote and still win the Electoral College in November. Biden has an 81% chance of winning the popular vote, compared with only a 71% chance. won the Electoral College. However, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Biden a 30% chance of winning the popular two-digit vote.
Biden’s calculated chances of winning are exactly the same as FiveThirtyEight reported Election Day 2016, when the source said Democrats Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonNAACP seeks to boost black voter turnout in six California states Protest Yang after he expressed disappointment over the original DNC squad Hill’s campaign report: Biden chose Harris as you run for MORE has a 71% chance of winning.
At the time, the data press website was criticized for giving Trump too great a chance of winning.
The New York Times model gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning Election Day.
But Trump has run tables in traditional battlefield states, where polls are imminent, and depressed Democrats’ turnout rates in “green wall” states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin gave Trump a narrow victory. Trump eventually won the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote of millions of votes.
“On the contrary, the uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast mainly stems from the fact that there is still a long way to go until the election,” Silver wrote. “Let’s see what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the ongoing election will be held today. It turns out that Biden has a 93% chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much larger voting error than we saw in 2016 ”