The Democrats favorably took control of the Senate in the 2020 election, according to the final version of the FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast. With forecasts made early Tuesday morning, Democrats have 75 out of 100 chances to overturn. Republicans, meanwhile, have 25 out of 100 chances of retaining control – like drawing a spade from a deck of cards.
However, one your The seats are still competitive; In the 80 percent simulations of our model, the Democrats ended up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. That̵7;s a great range! And the exact number of seats here is important, because it’s not just about controlling the room. Winning 50 seats (plus the vice president’s mediation vote) is a very different outcome for Democrats to win 55 seats, as the size of their majority affects their ability to pass. over his ambitious agenda to the opposition of more moderate Democrats like, say, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.
Now for the competitive seats. There are 17 Senate seats where both parties have at least 5 out of 100 chances of winning. But one big reason Democrats are generally favored in general is that the Republicans with more seats are at higher risk – 13 seats in total, as the table below shows. (We’ll be touching four seats that Democrats may lose in a moment.)
|Chance to win|
|Arizona *||Martha McSally||78||22|
|North Carolina||Thom Tillis||68||32|
|Georgia *||Kelly Loeffler||63||37|
|Montana||Steve Daines||thirty first||69|
|South Carolina||Lindsey Graham||23||77|
|Texas||John Cornyn||14||eighty six|
Remember, Democrats only need to get 3 seats (if they also win the vice presidency) or 4 (if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term) to take control. But not all GOP-held seats are equally vulnerable – so break them down into categories based on how likely they will turn blue.
First, there are two Republican-held seats that are more likely to fall to Democrats: Colorado and Arizona. In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has a chance of beating Republican Senator Cory Gardner who looks particularly strong: 84 out of 100. This is probably partly due to Joe Biden looking so capable of carrying Colorado, and this is becoming increasingly rare for voters. to divide their tickets between presidential and Senate races. In Arizona, Biden’s victory is not guaranteed, but former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven to be an extremely powerful recruiter for the Democrats in Arizona, raising more than $ 87 million in personal contributions. and lead in most polls since he entered the race in early 2019. Hurt by the fact that she is an appointed senator (something she barely has incumbent advantage), Republican Martha McSally has only 22 out of 100 chances to win.
Two additional Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats – though in all likelihood we’ll only know who won one of them today: North Carolina. There, former state Senator Cal Cunningham was the 68th favorite out of 100 to beat Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Despite revelations that Cunningham sent a sex message to a woman who was not his wife, the race was pretty steady and he managed to keep his lead in the poll. . We give the same odds for Democrats (63 in 100 chance) that will eventually win the Georgia special election – but this race is almost certainly not going to be decided until January. . That’s because the race is a battle between 20 candidates from all parties (with no primary candidates), it is almost impossible for any candidate to secure a majority of the votes needed. win the championship. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the two top finishers will advance to the run on Jan. 5. Democrats are now leading polls on the vote, but a lot is likely. out over the next two months and Georgia remains a Republican-leaning country.
After that, three Republican-held seats were more or less overturned. In Maine, Democratic House Speaker Sara Gideon has 59 out of 100 chances to win, while incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has 41 out of 100. The polls generally favor Gideon, but Collins, with a moderate voting record and a history of performing well against other Maine Republicans, is a strong incumbent able to overcome the color change. state green. The tables are pivoted in another Georgia Senate race, where Republican Senator David Perdue is at 57 out of 100 and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is not far behind at 43 per 100. Also there is a good chance this race will go to one, as our average vote-by-vote predictions show that no candidate reaches 50%. Last but not least, Iowa is another virtual currency in the race: Republican Senator Joni Ernst has a 58 out of 100 chance of winning, while the Democratic Theresa Greenfield is 42 out of 100.
But the real races that can make a difference between the thin majority Democrats and the strong are the six-seat Republican-held Democrats, where the Democrats are undervalued – but there’s still a chance to choose. Perhaps the most likely candidate for disappointment is in Montana, where Republican Senator Steve Daines has 69 out of 100 chances to win – but Democrat Steve Bullock, famous governor of state, has 31 out of 100 chances. Democrats also have 23 out of 100 opportunities in Alaska and 20 out of 100 in Kansas, where their candidates have a strong independent identity that could help fight the party wave in fairly red states. this. In Alaska, Al Gross is an independent Democrat running for the election; in Kansas, State Senator Barbara Bollier was a Republican until 2018. And in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison became the Beto O’Rourke of the 2020 cycle – a Democrat running a war. surprisingly strong translation in the red state against a bold Republican name (in this case, Sen. Lindsey Graham). Harrison has raised almost $ 108 million (!) To personal contributions, which recently broke O’Rourke’s record for the largest Senate fundraising quarter. never. Harrison kept everything secret in the polls as well but only had 23 out of 100 chances to win. Finally, Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (88 out of 100) and John Cornyn (86 out of 100) are healthy favorites to win another term in Mississippi and Texas, but they’re not entirely safe either.
So that’s a lot of potential Democratic pickup trucks. But the number of seats Democrats choose is only half the equation: Don’t forget that Republicans also have some chance to play aggressively, which may negate some of the benefits of Democrats. But the problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target. In fact, they can only flip a seat.
|Chance to win|
|Alabama||Doug Jones||13%||eighty seven%|
|New Mexico||OPEN||ninety four||6|
It is in Alabama, where Tommy Tuberville of the Republican Party has an 87 out of 100 chance of beating Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. While Jones is the incumbent and has raised a considerable amount (much more than Tuberville), he is said to have won the seat in the 2017 special election just because of his sticky Republican rival. His scandal is a weak candidate in history. Ultimately, our forecast suggests that Alabama is too red for Jones to win re-election.
Democrats, however, are pretty strong favorites in every Senate seat held by Democrats this year. Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can beat Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan – and he’s one of the Republican most powerful recruits in the cycle, having raised almost 36 million. Individual dollar contributions – but our forecast shows James has only 17 out of 100 chances. And New Mexico and Minnesota are on the cusp of non-competition, because Republicans have a 6-in-100 chance at first and a 5-in-100 chance at chance.
With Republicans able to beat an incumbent Democrat, Democrats probably need to flip the four Republican-held seats to secure that coveted majority. And that’s most likely: They have a clear path to do it through Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and (possibly eventually) Georgia – not to mention many other states where they have a shot. really, if longer. Overall, as the dust settles, our forecast predicts that Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and an average of 48 Republicans. However, while we were hoping on Tuesday night to know which party would control the next Senate, we are almost certain to have won. ‘ Its exact ingredients are unknown thanks to potential races in Georgia and slow ballot counting in states like Alaska. Our forecast may be quite short, but stay with FiveThirtyEight for the next few weeks as we complete all the loose endings in the Senate and elsewhere.