With only a few days left until Election Night and the president must watch in many state and national polls, Donald Trump’s insiders are increasingly whispering the same thoughts: Our guy blew it away.
The Biden White House forecast is not a welcome one. But one of them eventually accepted after a year due to coronavirus death, economic devastation, and racial and civil unrest that led the government to run by someone they believed had failed. failure, even just a pure message. front.
“I believe the betting markets, say there is a 60% chance that Biden will win and a 40% chance that Trump will win,”; Stephen Moore, a conservative economist who advises President Trump on economic matters. and related to COVID-19, said in an interview on Thursday.
Explaining his pessimism, Moore cites a number of factors, including cases of still rising viruses in certain regions of the United States.
Moore said he had hoped that the Gross Domestic Product report released on Thursday would help boost the presidential campaign. He even recalls a visit to the White House last month in which he told the president that the report “would be a ‘real surprise of October’, that he could be” real the … contributions to the voters, “and two then think about ways to strongly promote upcoming numbers.
But as soon as the seemingly positive report was released on Thursday – showing the economy growing at a 33.1% annual rate in the previous quarter – Moore found it difficult to muster optimism about the gains. its political benefits. “I really don’t have a good feeling about this,” he admitted.
If Moore was alone in his disbelief, it could be abbreviated as superstitious, half-hearted thoughts of a mentor who was truly terrified of a Biden presidency. But he is not alone. Among sixteen well-positioned and knowledgeable sources on Trumpworld – campaign aides, Republican sponsors, senior government officials and close associates of the president, and His family – who were interviewed by The Daily Beast for this story the week before Election Day 2020, only five gave Trump a comfortable win rate. Doug Deason, a multi-dollar sponsor of Trump from Dallas, has pegged Trump’s odds at “75% or higher,” for example.
Six others are confident, to varying degrees, that President Trump will be demoted to one term. The remaining five people give him about 50/50 odds. Out of those five, two of them – a White House official and a friend of the president – began to look increasingly pessimistic as the conversation continued.
“Presidents have struggled to maintain message discipline. And the left is highly motivated to vote, as seen by the so far record number of voters. That doesn’t mean there is no window for a president to win. In fact, he is the underdog in this competition.“
– And Eberhart
Dan Eberhart, chief executive at Canary and another major Trump sponsor who contributed $ 100,000 to Trump’s Victory in this cycle, told The Daily Beast on Thursday night that if he had In time, he will not give a penny of that to the venture. Fundraising committee re-elected president.
“I think Trump has a 25% chance of winning the election. His campaign focuses on getting excited for his facility, not chasing the people at the center. COVID is a huge wind that has mitigated the thriving Trump economy, ”said Eberhart. “The President struggled to maintain messaging discipline. And the left is highly motivated to vote, as seen by the so far record number of voters. That doesn’t mean there is no window for the president to win. In fact, he is the weaker in this competition. “
The businessman continued. “If I can redo my donations during this cycle, I will reset all of them again,” he said. “Honestly, I will spend all of my contributions holding the Senate. I never thought the Senate would work. ”
Eberhart does not appear to be the only Trump sponsor with a hint of buyer regret. According to data provided by Responsive Political Center, of the more than 1,100 individuals who spent a maximum of $ 5,400 legally on Trump’s 2016 campaign (or those who exceeded the maximum and must be refunded money), about 450 of them have not donated a penny. to the presidential re-election campaign this cycle.
The president has more sponsors in this cycle of all donation ranges, including those who have given legal maximums, than he did in the 2016 campaign. But what if each of the Those 450 sponsors also made full use of Trump’s 2020 campaign, which would provide additional substantial funding of $ 2.5 million.
And some of the multi-dollar sponsors of Trump’s 2017 inauguration festivals don’t just stop giving the president; they are actively campaigning for the Democratic opposition.
Commented on Friday afternoon, Jason Miller, Trump’s top campaign advisor answered: “The mood is great. President Trump will be re-elected. I don’t worry about bedbugs too much. ”
However, other Trump senior aides are also excited by the president’s anger over the election results. Three sources familiar with the matter said Trump repeatedly emphasized how low he is about Biden as a candidate, and said it would be extremely embarrassing for him if he lost to him this year.
Close aides and associates who have spoken to the president in recent days say that he has repeatedly argued behind closed doors that he will win, ignoring the majority of available exploration data. and refuses to talk much, if any, about What if he doesn’t. Trump will often argue that it doesn’t even make sense even that Biden can win, when you look at the size of his crowd in the campaign’s closing weeks versus Biden.
“If it was anyone else, I would call it a denial,” said one associate.
Two Trump administration officials working on foreign policy told The Daily Beast last week that they believe the president will lose, and instead they prioritize making it harder for President Biden to reverse progress. Their policy set – including the reintegration of the Iran nuclear deal.
However, there are those close to President Trump and in the famous GOP circles who say they still believe Trump will win a promenade, and its polls and dissidents are damned.
“Every time I speak to the president, I say very simply what I told him in October 2016: ‘You will win.“
– Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and Trump’s outside adviser, said: “I say 70 percent of him is re-elected and a 30 percent chance Biden wins. “I think most established polls are simply crazy. I think they did badly. I think they’re missing out on what’s really going on …[Trump] obviously win the Electoral College, but lose the popular vote …[due to] Illinois, California and New York. “
Describing his private conversations with Trump during the 2020 election cycle, Gingrich added, “Every time I talk to the president, I simply say what I told him in October. 2016: “You will win. “