House Democrats did not have the elections they expected.
The HQ’s decision predicts Democrats will keep a majority in the House of Representatives after calling for races for Democrats. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Tom O’Halleran in Arizona, officially raised their seats to 219. Many other races have yet to be called.
Democrats face unexpected stiff competition from Republican candidates in many counties. Instead of expanding their majority as many Democrats – and non-partisan forecasters – expected, the Democrats’ disparity in the House of Representatives appears to be shrinking after they first flipped. Handicap in 2018.
House Republican Night Night Story is the success of the female Republican candidate. Republicans had reverted six seats as of Wednesday morning, while Democrats flipped only two vacant seats in North Carolina. Many races have yet to be called.
Under the leadership of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrats are expected to retain control of the House of Representatives after they gain an edge in the mid-2018 term. Pelosi and the Chair of the National Campaigns Committee Democrat Cheri Bustos (D-IL) had predicted confidence would go at night, but Bustos herself was facing a closer fight for re-election.
Democrats controlling at least one chamber remain an important outcome. With Joe Biden officially elected President, the Democrats will control the House and the White House, but its chances of regaining the Senate will drop to double uncertainty in Georgia.
House Democrats suffered early defeat in Florida, where Democrats were first termed. Donna Shalala and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell lost to Republicans after Democrats outperformed Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade County.
In Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn lost out to Republican challenge Stephanie Bice. In New Mexico’s second congressional district, incumbent Rep. Xochitl Torres Small is vulnerable to Republican Yvette Herrell. And in South Carolina’s First Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham lost to Republican Nancy Mace.
And although Democrats make big investments in Texas, hoping to recreate success as soon as 2018, they have not managed to remove a single Texas Republican member in the House of Representatives by 2020. The Citizen Party owner held on to two Texas seats they flipped in 2018, but failed to pick up any more seats.
The Democrats’ nocturnal highlights in the House of Representatives reflect the presidential tendencies. Democrats switched Georgia’s Seventh Election District from red to blue, reflecting a trend at the presidential level of Biden that appears to be performing better than expected in Georgia.
Why do Democrats fight more than expected in some races for the House of Representatives
It is too early to say exactly what happened to members of the House Democrats, who often hope to comfortably expand their majority. The district-level internal poll shows Republicans are likely to lose more seats by 2020.
Many Republican strategists have resigned before the possibility of their House of Representatives ranks falling. Instead, the Republicans are the ones making a lot of profits – even though those modest enough to stay in the minority in the House of Representatives.
Cook Poli Report’s House editor Dave Wasserman had some initial thoughts on Wednesday: Like Biden, the Democratic congressional candidates suffer losses among Hispanic voters in the racing is important. Democrats had bad nights, especially in Florida and Texas; they lost a few incumbents in Florida and failed to beat any of the Republican incumbents in Texas, despite a massive investment in the state to target 10 counties.
Republicans have also learned from their failures in 2018 and recruited top female candidates who are on a streak of victories.
“After last night, the Republicans were on track to more than double their current number of 13 women,” writes Wasserman.
A bright spot for Democrats is that first-term female candidates, especially those with national security backgrounds, have largely entered the competitive races themselves. After sounding alarm bells for months that the political environment closer than polls showed, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) won the race on Wednesday; Races for representatives Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Elaine Luria (D-VA) have yet to be named.
All of these results do not have a clear story. It is difficult to say how soon it is based on strategic flaws, and how much is due to the odd nature of this election year – in the context of a pandemic that has significantly hampered Democrats’ ability to practice show basic motor tasks like knocking on doors.
“Before Tuesday, most Republican strategists resigned from the prospect of losing their double-digit seats,” Wasserman wrote. “At this point, Republicans may be on track to pick five to ten seats in the House, ironically where our expectations begin this cycle – but certainly not where they end up. end. “
Radical Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who easily fights his own well-funded challenger, says many House Democrats haven’t invested enough in technical advertising. digital.
Two years after wiping out races across the country, the party must now figure out what happened to their congressional candidates in 2020.
House Democrats may have to compete with a Republican Senate
House Democrats have spent the past two years passing bills at a rapid rate, on everything from sweeping anti-corruption reforms to reducing prescription drug costs to an infrastructure bill. floors are worth 1.5 trillion dollars. But most of these bills died on reaching the US Senate. It seems this ambitious agenda could continue to be frozen, unless Democrats flip two withdrawal races in the Georgia Senate to be decided in January.
One of the few bipartisan laws that Pelosi, Mitch McConnell and President Trump can agree on is the $ 2.2 trillion CARES Act at the start of the pandemic; a second stimulus was staged by partisan quarrels. McConnell recently signaled readiness to adopt another stimulus package before the end of the year. He called it “top priority” for the Senate session but was vague about specifics.
Even in terms of infrastructure – one of the few places where a bipartisan agreement appears – passing the bill can be elusive. If Democrats overthrew the Senate, Pelosi provided them with a roadmap.
But it is too early to tell whether they will use it or not.