According to the University of Texas-Austin study published in The Lancet, thousands of new coronavirus infections could have circulated undetected in both Wuhan, China and Seattle during the early stages of the era. Translate.
Research shows that by the time the time lockout was introduced in both cities, the initial epicenter of the respective countries, the virus could have been spreading for weeks.
The researchers analyzed data from two separate studies that re-examined samples from patients with flu-like symptoms in January in Wuhan and in February and March in Seattle.
They determined the ratio of coronavirus-positive gauze to flu-positive gauze and compared this with Washington State and Chinese surveillance data on influenza cases.
The results showed there could be more than 12,000 undetected but symptomatic cases in Wuhan by the time the city closed on January 23. Meanwhile, by the time Seattle closed schools on 9. In March, there are likely to be more than 9,000 cases undetected. One third of them are children.
Specifically, they concluded that for every three cases of influenza in adults there were two cases of coronavirus undetected in Wuhan, suggesting it is likely to spread across the city as early as November 2019.
Meanwhile, in Seattle, it’s estimated the incidence is one undetected case for every nine childhood flu cases. Ratio is 1-7 in adults. On March 9, when the city recorded 245 viral infections, data showed there could be up to 9,000 symptomatic cases.
“As the virus starts spreading in cities across the US and cities around the world, maybe by the time we start to detect cases, it’s likely that the virus has been spreading for several weeks. , if not months, ”Professor Lauren Ancel Meyers of integrated biology and statistics and data science, told Houston Chronicle.