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Home / US / CNN Polls: Biden takes the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin as campaign ends, with tighter races in Arizona and North Carolina

CNN Polls: Biden takes the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin as campaign ends, with tighter races in Arizona and North Carolina



Trump won all four of these states in 2016, and losing to any on Tuesday would make his narrow path of winning 270 electoral votes.

The polls, conducted at the end of the campaign, showed very little movement in the presidential race compared with previous CNN polls in each state.

Surveys show that Biden has given a broad advantage among voters who voted by mail or through early direct voting, with Trump leading the way with a large percentage of those who have not yet voted. The size of the electoral block may later determine the outcome of the race.

In Arizona and Wisconsin, the poll results match the average of recent high-quality public opinion polls about the race. The Arizona survey showed a race within the poll̵

7;s sampling range, with Biden at 50% backing Trump 46%. In Wisconsin, Biden leads the way, with 52% behind him compared with 44% for Trump.

See the head-to-head poll between Trump and Biden

North Carolina’s results show that Biden is a close lead, from 51% to 45%, just outside the poll’s 4-point sampling error range. The North Carolina public poll average shows the race for the presidency a bit stricter than the new one, even though a NBC News / Marist College poll was there for the week This also shows Biden with a narrow advantage.

In Michigan, the results show a broader margin than most of the public polls there, with 53% for Biden and 41% for Trump, but the results per candidate fall within the margin of error. of the survey compared with the estimated average support for that candidate.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, White voters make up a greater proportion of the population than they do in Arizona or North Carolina, and they also favor Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin more than they do in Arizona or North Carolina. White college degree voters in the two northern states favor Biden because of its exceptionally wide margins, 61% favoring the former vice president in both Michigan and Wisconsin, compared with about half in Arizona (50%). ) and North Carolina (51%). A majority of white voters without a college degree support Trump, with his strongest support of that group coming in North Carolina, where 64% support the President.

There is a sizeable gender gap across all four states, with 55% or more women supporting Biden in each of these states, while men support Trump in North Carolina and Arizona and split equally between the states in Michigan and Wisconsin. .

On the two defining issues of the 2020 campaign – the economics and the coronavirus pandemic – voters distinguish which candidate will better handle each of them. Biden has a sizeable advantage of being more reliable to handle coronavirus outbreaks across all four states, with a 7-point advantage in Arizona being his narrowest margin. Voters in Arizona and North Carolina largely want to see the economy in Trump’s hands (54% Trump to 43% Biden in Arizona, 51% Trump to 46% Biden in North Carolina), and the two candidates are even is raising the issue in Michigan (49% Trump to 48% Biden) and Wisconsin (49% Biden to 48% Trump) even with Biden’s broader advantage in overall preferences there.

However, a likely majority of voters in all four states disapproved of Trump’s handling of affairs as president, from 51% disapproval in Arizona to 56% in Michigan.

Trump supporters in all four states are voting to show their support for the President. More than 7 out of 10 Trump voters in each poll said their vote was for Trump more than it was against Biden (79% in Wisconsin, 77% in Arizona and Michigan and 71% in North Carolina say so). Among Biden’s supporters, however, it was more divided. A majority in Wisconsin said their votes were for the former vice president (52%) rather than against Trump (43%), but the figures show evenly split in Arizona (48% against Trump, 45% for Biden), Michigan (47% against Biden, 43% against Trump) and North Carolina (45% for Biden, 43% against Trump).

In all four states, Biden has the advantage of being a more empathetic candidate and a proponent of unification. Voters in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin say that Biden than Trump has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems. In Arizona, voters are split between the two candidates for that measure. And voters in three states – Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin – split equally about who will keep Americans safe from harm. Trump has an advantage in Arizona and in Wisconsin as the stamina and sharp candidate to become president, while voters in North Carolina and Michigan split on that question.

Three of these states also have closely watched Senate contests. In Arizona and Michigan, the polls show an edge for the Democrats. In Arizona, 52% favor Democrat Mark Kelly and 45% support Republican Senator Martha McSally. In Michigan, 52% favor the incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, while 40% favor Republican challenger John James. In North Carolina, however, it is an even race, with 47% behind Democrat Cal Cunningham and 44% supporting the incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis.

North Carolina will also elect a governor this year, and in that race, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is taking a clear lead over his Republican challenger, Dan Forest, 52% to 42%.

CNN polls in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin were conducted over the phone from October 23 to 30 among random samples of about 1,000 adults in each state. That includes 865 possible voters in Arizona, 907 likely voters in Michigan, 901 likely voters in North Carolina and 873 likely voters in Wisconsin. Results among voters were 4.1 percentage points more likely to have plus or minus sampling error in Arizona, 3.8 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in North Carolina, and 3.9 points in Wisconsin. It is higher between subgroups.


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