WASHINGTON – Joe Biden holds a modest 6-point lead with voters likely to back President Donald Trump in tough North Carolina, a new NBC / Marist poll shows.
Among the likely voters, Biden’s backing is 52%, compared with 46% of the incumbent president. (Out of all registered voters in the state, the former vice president’s lead is similar, at 51% vs. Trump’s 46%.)
Biden’s advantage lies in the margin of error of the poll of +/- 4.7 percentage points for those who are likely to vote and +/- 4.1 percentage points for those who have registered. (The margin of error of +/- 4.7 means that pollers believe each candidate̵7;s actual vote rate could be 4.7 percentage points higher or lower).
The poll also shows a 10-point advantage for Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, who hopes to overthrow first-term Communist Party senator Thom Tillis.
Cunningham got the backing of 53 percent of the likely voters, while Tillis got 43 percent – an outright margin advantage – even though Cunningham was facing an infidelity scandal that threatened to destroy him. cancel the race. Cunningham’s lead is identical among registered voters.
And incumbent Democratic Party Governor Roy Cooper – who is also rated 60% of the job approval – easily ahead of Dan Forest, the Republican challenger, 59% to 40% of those likely to quit. promissory note.
The positive news for Democrats comes when voters in the state give the president a rather lackluster rating. Forty-four percent approved of the work he was doing as president, while 52 percent disagreed.
Biden is also seen as more profitable than Trump in the state. Half of the voters have a chance – 50 percent – see him well, while 46 percent don’t, with a net score of +4. As for Trump, 43% had a good impression of him, while 54% did not, with an actual score of -11.
Biden overturned the 2016 scenario with white college-educated voters
Biden’s advantage in the state that Trump earned about 4 points in 2016 was driven by his advantage among college-educated voters as well as suburban residents, women, and indies.
Among all voters with a college degree in North Carolina, he led between 61% and 37%. Among only college-educated white voters, a group for which Trump won with double digits in North Carolina four years ago, Biden led between 61% and 38%.
Biden is also ahead with independent voters (52 percent to 43 percent), suburban voters (60 percent to 38 percent), women (60 percent to 38 percent), skin voters black (89 percent to 9 percent) and voters under 45 years old (59 percent to 36 percent).
Trump led the way among white voters (56% to 42%), whites without a college degree (70% to 28%) and men (55% to 42%).
Among the elders, a group has been fiercely contested, two men essentially tied, 50% for Trump and 49% for Biden.
The President also maintains the enthusiastic advantage reflected in the national votes. More than 8/10 – 83% – of his supporters say they support him strongly, compared with 72% of Biden’s voters.
As the national polls also show, Mr. Biden’s supporters are more likely to vote ahead of Election Day.
Among those who say they voted by mail or plan to do so, Biden led between 76% and 19%. Among those who voted in person at the early voting site, 52% favored Biden and 46% favored Trump. But among those who plan to vote directly on Election Day, the president has a 2-1 lead, 67% to 30%.
Cunningham took the lead among those who got 21 points
In the state’s closely watched Senate race, Cunningham’s advantage largely reflected Biden’s advantage. He ranks first among women (62 percent to 34 percent), white college graduates (61 percent to 37 percent), suburban voters (63 percent to 34 percent) and poisonous. up (56 percent to 38 percent).
Those quotes came despite the revelation in early October that Cunningham had exchanged sexual messages with a woman who was not his wife.
The mail voting began in North Carolina on September 4, nearly a month before the Cunningham scandal broke out.
Among those who voted, Cunningham held a lead between 60% and 39% over the incumbent of the GOP.
But among those who have yet to vote, 41% support Cunningham and 52% support Tillis.
What does the sample of the poll look like
As Marist works to ensure that hard-to-reach voters are included in his samples, 21% of the voters likely to be sampled are from the Raleigh-Durham area, 17% from the Charlotte area, 21 % come from the Piedmont / central area of the state, and 18 percent come from the western part of the state.
Thirty-three percent of the voters were likely to be Democrats, 30 percent were identified as Republicans, and 34 percent were identified as independent.
The sample includes 40% of college graduates and 60% without a university degree.
The NBC / Marist direct caller poll surveyed 1,135 adults in North Carolina between October 25 and 28, 2020. Includes 1,049 registered voters, with an error of +/- 4.1 points percent. The voter sample is likely to include 800 respondents and has an error of +4.7 percentage points.