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Biden leads Trump in six swings



Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at a poll boosting rally at Cleveland Burke Lakefront Airport on November 2, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio.

Drew Angerer | beautiful images

According to a new poll by CNBC / Change Research, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in six states the president aims to protect on Tuesday during his campaign. Second term.

The survey released on Monday shows the former vice president holds at least one advantage in all of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all places Trump won in 201

6. Even so, it shows a race in the presidential remarkable distance in most of the electoral college awards.

  • All six swing states: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
  • Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
  • Florida: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
  • Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
  • North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 53%, Trump 45%

A separate national CNBC / Change Research poll found Biden was 52% to 42% ahead of Trump.

The rotating poll surveyed 3,328 people Thursday through Sunday and had a 1.7 percentage point addition or subtraction error. The national survey, conducted within the same timeframe, had a sample size of 1,880 voters with a high probability of adding or subtracting 2.26 percentage points.

The polls in the final stage before Election Day show clear, but by no means insurmountable, advantage for Biden in the race to the White House. While the contests in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania seem imminent, Trump has more facilities to make up in Michigan and Wisconsin, two long blue states that helped bring him into the White House in 2016. .

It’s not clear any belated change in voter sentiments will change this year’s presidential race. In an election in which Americans vote early or by mail in staggering numbers, 68% of respondents for both the national and state survey said they voted.

In Arizona, 85% of respondents said they voted, while 82% and 81% of likely voters in Florida and North Carolina, also said the same. Meanwhile, 63% and 57% of Wisconsin and Michigan voters said they voted. In Pennsylvania – where it can take days to count ballots by mail – only 40% of respondents said they voted.

Meanwhile, polls between the battlefield states show that Democrats are leading the races closely for the three key Senate seats. The party that wins all the elections in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina will go a long way to gaining control of the Senate. Republicans currently have a majority 53-47.

In the special election in Arizona, former Democratic astronaut Mark Kelly led Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 51% to 47% difference. Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters holds a 51% to 46% advantage over GOP Army veteran and businessman John James.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Senator Cal Cunningham led Republican Senator Thom Tillis with a margin of between 50% and 46%. CNBC / Change Research polls have found a consistent but small lead for Cunningham throughout the race, even after confirming the Democrats’ romantic relationship with a woman who is not a wife. your.

Polls showing Trump’s performance during his first term, especially in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic that resulted in more than 230,000 American deaths, have hampered him in key states. Of the six rotating states, 46% of voters are likely to say they approve of Trump’s handling of the virus, compared with 54% disapproving.

Nationwide, just 41% of respondents said they approve of how the president is managing the outbreak, compared with 59% saying they disagree.

At the same time, 53% of voters in battlefield states said they prefer Biden and Democrats to handle the coronavirus, compared with 47% who choose Trump and Republicans. Nationwide, 58% said they would choose Biden and his party to manage the outbreak, while 42% chose the president and his party.

Trump is rated higher for the economy: 51% of respondents in the revolving states and 46% nationwide said they approve of his handling of the problem.

The economy and the coronavirus seem to be decisive issues for poll respondents in the final stage before Election Day when voters are asked to name the three most important topics facing the country. face.

In the pivotal survey 48% chose economy, employment and cost of living, while 41% chose Covid-19. The next biggest concern is political corruption, which 34% of voters have chosen.

Nationwide, 44% of voters chose Covid-19, followed by economy, employment and cost of living at 43% and political corruption at 31%.

The data signal Biden leads has a lot to do with the current White House folks. More than half, or 54 percent, of the Biden voters in the revolving state said they mostly voted against Trump, while 46 percent said they mostly voted for the former vice president.

The dynamics differ among Trump supporters. More than 8/10, or 84%, said that they mainly voted for Trump, while 16% responded that they were voting against Biden.

– Graphics of CNBC’s Nate Rattner

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