Contrary to Donald Trump’s impulsive policies in the Middle East, Joe Biden is expected to return to a more conventional US stance and re-engage with Iran, redrawing the region’s geopolitics.
During his tenure in office, Trump’s unique strategy created a reeling chain of remarkable achievements, risky moves and failed initiatives that changed the landscape of Chinese politics. Bronze.
The US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and assassinated the untouched general Qasem Soleimani.
It also moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, disrupted international consensus and severed the US military presence in an area that Trump believes has lost much of its strategic importance.
But with the Biden election, the energy-rich region is facing another major shift that could see the United States̵7; tougher stance on human rights and arms deals.
The European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) said: “This is an area where the government …
“Biden has made it clear that he intends to rejoin the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) if Iran also returns to full compliance and pursues diplomacy with Tehran on broader issues.”
– Repulsion of sanctions –
Trump’s personalized relationships with regional regimes have resulted in the liberation of the hands of Arab monarchs and regimes, especially the young Arab reality ruler Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The businessman’s warm relationship who has just become president, especially in the Gulf, is in contrast to that of his predecessor, Barack Obama, who had an agreement with Iran that left his rival in the dark. Saudi Arabia and its neighbors were horrified.
Just a few days ago, the United States agreed to sell the F-35 flagship fighter jet worth more than $ 10 billion to the United Arab Emirates, to reward its diplomatic recognition to Israel. .
Trump’s policies generally work well in the Gulf and beyond, especially in Saudi Arabia, despite a lack of action on major incidents like last year’s unprecedented attack on energy giant Aramco, blamed by Iran.
“Saudi officials support a second Trump presidency,” said Elham Fakhro, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group of Gulf States.
“They see Trump acting to protect their most important regional interests, by imposing a maximum pressure sanctions campaign against Iran … and by promoting arms sales to the king. country. “
Now, they worry “that the Biden administration will give up these core interests, by backing up sanctions against Iran, going back to the JCPOA and restricting arms sales.”
The White House has also pushed back anti-Saudi resolutions in parliament over its controversial participation in the Yemen war, which had come at the cost of thousands of civilian lives and assassination. terrible 2018 for a Saudi journalist in Turkey
“With the capricious leadership of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, from the alleged role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi to the catastrophic war in Yemen, MBS could find itself at a disadvantage when Washington looks at the pros and cons of the relationship with Riyadh, ”said the US-based Soufan Center.
Hours after the last election was called, Arab leaders rushed to congratulate Biden. Of the six Gulf states, only Saudi Arabia has not responded.
– Sigh in relief –
Biden’s regional strategy will face a series of conundrums for which Trump is accused of neglecting or mismanaging, from playing a decisive role in ending the war in Libya, to restraint. a rising Turkey and facing an attack threat in Iraq.
Analysts say one of the administration’s first moves is to restore contact with Palestinians, who are furious over the embassy issue in Jerusalem and the US push for the normal Arab world. relations with Israel.
Biden sincerely endorses the decision of some Arab countries to establish relations with Israel, and it is unlikely that he will close the new embassy.
However, he is expected to “repel the most negative consequences of the Trump era” by extending US aid to the Palestinians, reopening the Palestinian mission in Washington, and returning to dual state status. tradition, EFCR said.
“However, there is no possibility of a return to the status quo.”
mah / sls / dm / hkb