In 2016, Donald Trump won 58 of Florida’s 67 counties. According to polls, voters aged 65 and over made up 21% of the state’s total electorate in the 2016 general election, and Mr. Trump won the group with 17 points – 57% to 40%. CBS News’ October 25 poll showed that Biden used to be the president who currently leads Biden in this group by nine points.
In Florida, there are four counties that voted for former President Obama twice and then voted for Trump in 2016. Three of the four pivot counties are direct neighbors that are traditionally considered Democrats. . In addition, there are two counties in the state that voted for Obama in 2008, Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, before choosing Mr. Trump in 2016.
The three largest counties in the state by population – Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County – are considered Democratic strongholds. Over the past 20 years, all three counties have supported the Democratic candidate.
GOP strategists point out that even if the Republicans don’t win the region, they can drill down into the Democratic Party’s historic advantage in the region. In 2018, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson lost his Senate run to then-Governor Rick Scott, after beating Miami-Dade by 9 points less than Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Miami-Dade, where 69.4% of the population is Latino, is also a case study in another major voting bloc in Florida. In 2016, there were more than two million registered Hispanic voters in the state, representing 16% of Florida’s total registered voters at that time. Pew Research found that while 62% of Latino voters in Florida voted for Hillary Clinton, 54% of Cuban voters voted for Mr. Trump, compared with 26% of non-Cuban Latino voters for him. While Biden maintained a 27-point lead among Latino voters in Florida in the latest Battleground Tracker poll, University of Miami’s School of Political Science, Gregory Koger, said if Mr. Trump could narrow it down. His margin of loss in Miami-Dade, “that will help him a lot.”
In 2016, polls showed Mr. Trump won 9 points among men – 52% to 43% – but the latest poll by CBS News in the state showed that Biden has taken the lead. top in this group; he only has a two point advantage when it comes to the election, 49% to 47%.
Among white college voters – the group for which Mr Trump won 27 points in 2016 – Biden may be on track to outperform Clinton and outperform Mr. Trump by one point, according to the October 25 Battleground Tracker poll by CBS News. In 2016, White college voters made up more than a third of Florida’s total. Opinion polls show that Trump won the group 62% versus Clinton’s 35%. The latest CBS News poll shows that Biden leads between 49% and 48%.
Mr Trump is also following Biden among female voters – 46% to 50% – in the latest CBS News poll. In 2016, polls showed he lost to Hillary Clinton in this group by the same 4 points gap.